Based on the current intelligence and information from the previous period, it is estimated
that in the future period as well it is possible to expect security incidents and violent acts in
a similar or larger volume, inspired by the economic/social situation and other causes, but
also acts against returnees, their property, religious facilities and so forth (damaging sacral
buildings, tombstones and markings, ethnically-motivated disturbances of public peace and
order, activation of explosive devices, offensive nationalistic graffiti, destruction of state
symbols, etc.)
The economic and social status of individuals may be taken advantage of by some legally
established organizations and associations with an ethnic or religious denominator, for the
purpose of continued demonstration of intolerance, individually or as a group, towards
other ethnicities or religions.
Based on the available intelligence, it is estimated that the current course of activity by
some individuals or groups from certain legally established organizations and associations
with an ethnic or religious denominator, which are active in BiH, will continue in different
forms and with varying intensity, as an individual or group demonstration of intolerant,
resentful, provocative or aggressive attitude towards other ethnicities, religions and beliefs,
or by creating incidents or participating in incidents that reflect intolerance and hatred,
sometimes even under the pretext of “protection” of ethnic and religious interests. In
doing that, they will continue to use global communication systems as well. Despite the
lack of information suggesting that such organizations or individuals are actually preparing
large-scale acts of violence or acts with some elements of terrorism, they still cannot be
excluded from the mentioned categories, especially in the event of complex internal
circumstances.
Estimates indicate that the provocative and destructive behavior of some football supporter
groups (mostly younger ones) may cause large-scale public disturbances during sport
events in the future period, unless the relevant authorities take appropriate legal action and
if the society in general, different organizations and civil associations around which this
particular population gathers, do more in terms of prevention.
Currently available information does not suggest that acts of international terrorism are
being prepared in any form in Bosnia and Herzegovina, either targeting BiH or any foreign
subject or facility within or outside BiH borders. However, presence of a certain number
of foreign nationals of Afro-Asian descent who still reside in our country and who earlier
maintained contacts with persons connected with international terrorism, and some of
whom still do not have a regulated status in BiH, creates a possibility for them, under
certain circumstances and enhanced by their dissatisfaction over their legal status, to
reactivate their indicated connections and develop them into an activity of specific security
importance, even play a role in a specific operation that may involve assistance or possible
participation in acts of terrorism, as an ultimate consequence.
Although some illegally obtained weapon caches were located and then found by the
relevant authorities, based on bulk information it may be supposed that some amounts of
weapon and explosive ordnance are still secretly kept by individuals and groups in BiH.
This fact will have a significant negative impact in the context of possible threats to BiH
security in the future period. Therefore, realistic assessments suggest that some quantities
will continue to end up on foreign black market, but also in the hands of buyers who are
contemplating terrorist actions. Available information indicates that the stage of such
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