Based on the current intelligence and information from the previous period, it is estimated that in the future period as well it is possible to expect security incidents and violent acts in a similar or larger volume, inspired by the economic/social situation and other causes, but also acts against returnees, their property, religious facilities and so forth (damaging sacral buildings, tombstones and markings, ethnically-motivated disturbances of public peace and order, activation of explosive devices, offensive nationalistic graffiti, destruction of state symbols, etc.) The economic and social status of individuals may be taken advantage of by some legally established organizations and associations with an ethnic or religious denominator, for the purpose of continued demonstration of intolerance, individually or as a group, towards other ethnicities or religions. Based on the available intelligence, it is estimated that the current course of activity by some individuals or groups from certain legally established organizations and associations with an ethnic or religious denominator, which are active in BiH, will continue in different forms and with varying intensity, as an individual or group demonstration of intolerant, resentful, provocative or aggressive attitude towards other ethnicities, religions and beliefs, or by creating incidents or participating in incidents that reflect intolerance and hatred, sometimes even under the pretext of “protection” of ethnic and religious interests. In doing that, they will continue to use global communication systems as well. Despite the lack of information suggesting that such organizations or individuals are actually preparing large-scale acts of violence or acts with some elements of terrorism, they still cannot be excluded from the mentioned categories, especially in the event of complex internal circumstances. Estimates indicate that the provocative and destructive behavior of some football supporter groups (mostly younger ones) may cause large-scale public disturbances during sport events in the future period, unless the relevant authorities take appropriate legal action and if the society in general, different organizations and civil associations around which this particular population gathers, do more in terms of prevention. Currently available information does not suggest that acts of international terrorism are being prepared in any form in Bosnia and Herzegovina, either targeting BiH or any foreign subject or facility within or outside BiH borders. However, presence of a certain number of foreign nationals of Afro-Asian descent who still reside in our country and who earlier maintained contacts with persons connected with international terrorism, and some of whom still do not have a regulated status in BiH, creates a possibility for them, under certain circumstances and enhanced by their dissatisfaction over their legal status, to reactivate their indicated connections and develop them into an activity of specific security importance, even play a role in a specific operation that may involve assistance or possible participation in acts of terrorism, as an ultimate consequence. Although some illegally obtained weapon caches were located and then found by the relevant authorities, based on bulk information it may be supposed that some amounts of weapon and explosive ordnance are still secretly kept by individuals and groups in BiH. This fact will have a significant negative impact in the context of possible threats to BiH security in the future period. Therefore, realistic assessments suggest that some quantities will continue to end up on foreign black market, but also in the hands of buyers who are contemplating terrorist actions. Available information indicates that the stage of such 21

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