52) Ukraine will probably continue in its efforts to intensify its military cooperation with NATO which is one of the deciding factors in the worsening of its relations with the Russian Federation. A large-scale conventional armed conflict between Ukraine and the Russian Federation is unlikely, but it is not possible to dismiss this scenario completely. The security situation can change rapidly. In the case of a larger conflict it is important to primarily keep in mind the extant problem of the internally displaced persons in Ukraine, the number of which could grow rapidly. In the event that the security situation of Ukraine worsens further, the migration potential of Ukraine may multiply with deleterious effects on the security architectures of neighbouring countries. 53) Ukraine will continue to be dependent on the political and financial support of the EU and the International Monetary Fund. Improvement of Ukraine’s economic situation is not likely in the near to mid-term. The political situation in the country remains unstable. The strengthening of these factors may lead to social unrest among the populace. 54) The revised Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation explicitly declares its defensive character, but the actual politics and the security realities may change. This doctrine emphasises that nuclear weapons will be used only in reaction to an attack on the Russian Federation by nuclear or conventional means and its very existence is threatened. A security problem in this context arises mainly from their reserving the right of a pre-emptive nuclear attack at the operational and tactical levels. Strategic-level propaganda along with “hybrid means of conducting combat operations” represent a major security threat 55) Strategic-level propaganda along with specific operational methods which are today called “hybrid means of conducting combat operations” represent a major security threat from the point of view of conducting conflicts in a changing security environment. Propaganda at the strategic level is a part of exerting informational and psychological influence on chosen target groups of the society within the framework of the so called “information warfare”. Propaganda at the strategic level is one of the pillars of a concept called “permanent war”. The basic tenets of this concept may be utilised in future conflicts of different types by all manner of security actors (also non-state), not only by the security forces of states. The aim is to break, with a minimal use of conventional forces, the moral and psychological strength of the adversary’s armed forces and particularly of a part of his civilian population (the polarisation of target groups) in such a way as to strike at the values and assets of the opponent targeted by “hybrid warfare”. 56) Sources of potential threats of both a military and non-military character will continue to be caused by the uneven economic, social and demographic development of individual nations, states, regions and continents. In the end, differences also create favourable conditions for the activities of terrorist, radical, extremist and militant groups. 34 WHITE PAPER ON DEFENCE