2.3. Technological drivers: the digital transformation is picking up steam In the years ahead, new technologies are set to become the principal drivers of change – with consequences for global politics, the environment, the global economy and society. We are on the cusp of a quantum leap in information and communication technologies. Today, around 11 billion devices, sensors and people are connected to each other. By 2030, that number is projected to jump to 200 billion devices. 2.3.1. A new phase in digitalisation Building on the Internet of Things, big data and cloud technologies, artificial intelligence (AI) is ushering in a new phase of digital transformation. AI enables machines to learn from experience, adapt to new information inputs and perform tasks that require human-like intelligence. AI systems already outperform humans in some cognitive tasks. AI is also beginning to catch up with humans in terms of sensorimotor skills and is also making progress in social intelligence. That said, people are unlikely to be ever overtaken by AI systems in social intelligence skills. 9 2.3.2. The fourth industrial revolution Like communication technologies, biotechnology and gene technology are also on the verge of major innovations. In the health sector, new diagnostic and therapeutic procedures bring enormous opportunities, but also raise ethical questions. Genetically modified or gene-edited crops promise to do the same for agriculture. Nanotechnologies and bionics will also change industrial production. We are witnessing the beginning of a Fourth Industrial Revolution. It will be driven by the convergence of digital, biological, and physical technologies. This convergence will multiply the potential for change inherent in each of these technology sectors. Compared to this networked digital world, the physical world will become less important economically. Some experts are predicting that the Fourth Industrial Revolution will significantly exceed earlier revolutions in terms of speed, scale and impact on economic, social and political systems. The Fourth Industrial Revolution also holds great potential for addressing environmental challenges. New technologies will help to reduce humanity’s ecological footprint and shape interactions between people, businesses and the environment in a sustainable way. Digitalisation 2.0 will become a key driver of innovation, value creation and growth. It will transform the way we live, work and grow old. But it also carries enormous risks, for example in the military sector and in the field of surveillance. AI also raises a number of sensitive foreign policy issues for Switzerland. Rapid developments in robotics, machine learning and automation will also impact labour markets worldwide. Manufacturing will be fully computerised and new production techniques and processes promise significant productivity gains. Many jobs, including high-skilled ones, are likely to be replaced, which could result in greater social inequality. As the raw material of the 21st century, data is changing the very foundations of power. Whoever possesses big data and AI technology has a strategic power advantage. There are signs that a technology race for supremacy in AI is already underway, particularly between the United States and China. Beijing is investing enormous sums in new technologies. The government wants to use AI to catapult China’s economy into the future but also to ensure public security and monitor and control Chinese citizens ‘intelligently’. Technological nationalism could become a defining trend, to the detriment of the free and fair use of technological innovations. Internet freedom is an achievement that is increasingly under threat. At the same time, however, new technologies always usher in innovations and new tasks to manage the interaction between people and machines. Countries like South Korea and Japan, for example, have remarkably low unemployment rates despite the fact that robotics are highly integrated in their value-added chains. The world in 2028 – what do we have to prepare for? The disruptive impact of the Fourth Industrial Revolution on labour markets and society will depend on the extent of the gap between automation and the emergence of new types of occupations. The transition requires appropriate framework conditions, for example at the level of education and training. Technological advances should benefit the greatest possible number of people.