2.2.2. Climate change as a megatrend Climate change is the primary ecological driver. Annual carbon dioxide emissions have quadrupled since 1960. As a consequence, sea levels are rising and weather patterns are changing. Extreme weather events are becoming more frequent, more severe and more widespread. Climate change is a megatrend that affects all countries. It exacerbates adverse environmental impacts and affects all societies and economies. Developing countries lacking sufficient resources to adapt to climate change are particularly affected. In large swathes of sub-Saharan Africa, climate change is threatening crop yields, food security and incomes. Climate change could push 100 million people back into extreme poverty by 2030. The World Bank estimates that climate change could displace over 140 million people by 2050. Densely populated coastal regions such as the Nile Delta and Bangladesh, as well as various Pacific island states, are particularly threatened. Heat stress could make many sub-Saharan regions uninhabitable. The scale of future risks largely depends on our ability to limit global warming. Climate mitigation is now becoming a vital global task. The Paris Agreement aims to hold the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C by the end of this century. According to the UN, climate mitigation efforts need to be tripled to achieve this goal. In essence, the aim is to ensure economic growth while reducing carbon emissions. Sustainability will become a cornerstone of prosperity and security. Systematic incentives for sustainable and scalable innovations could be an important means to achieve this. New technologies will play a pivotal role, alongside political initiatives, to significantly reduce the environmental impacts of consumption and production. They are all the more important given that the environmental policy measures tried so far have been largely ineffective in addressing the challenge of climate change. Switzerland is also feeling the effects of climate change. As a landlocked country, it does not benefit from ocean-driven temperature regulation. Average temperatures in Switzerland are already 2°C above pre-industrial levels. This means that in Switzerland, climate warming is twice the global average. Switzerland is affected directly both by more heatwaves with negative consequences for people’s health and by the progressive melting of its glaciers. It is also bears an indirect brunt of climate change, for example through migration and bottlenecks in the supply of important goods. The world in 2028 – what do we have to prepare for? 8