of disputes that had earlier been frozen have still not been resolved. Europe’s security is influenced by migration flows—a problem that has been exacerbated by the slow and inefficient resolution of international conflicts. Ideological and religious extremism have taken greater hold globally and are increasingly attacking the democratic world and its foundations. Humanitarian crises are more common in today’s world than before and it is increasingly difficult for the international community to counter them. The state of the global economy is still uncertain; the impact of climate change and inequality impinges on everyday life and development. The global influence of the Western value space – based on democracy, the market economy, the rule of law and human rights – is decreasing, and ideological opposition to it is increasing all over the world. The United States is still the leading political, military and economic power but, in addition to developed industrial states, other nations have been developing their political, economic and military capabilities and are gaining more prominent role in resolving global issues. Several world regions contain states that would like to develop and function according to beliefs that diverge from universal principles. Immediate threats to Estonia’s security primarily depend on the security situation in the EuroAtlantic region and the relations between its neighbouring countries. European security is affected by Russia’s increased military activity and aggressive behaviour. Russia is interested in restoring its position as a great power and for that purpose will not refrain from coming into a sharp opposition with the West and the Euro-Atlantic collective security system. In addition to political, diplomatic, informational and economic means, Russia has used military power to achieve its objectives. Russia has strengthened its armed forces and increased its military presence on the borders of NATO member states, including in the Baltic Sea region and on Estonia’s border. Russia’s unpredictable, aggressive and provocative activity, e.g. airspace violations, offensive military exercises, and nuclear threats, is generating instability. Sanctions and other countermeasures applied to Russia have had a restraining effect, but the restoration of trust and cooperation depends on alleviating tensions and resolving the conflicts in which Russia is involved. NATO is the foundation of security and defence cooperation in the Euro-Atlantic region and the cornerstone of collective defence. Actions intended to weaken NATO and the solidarity of allies, jeopardise Estonia and transatlantic security. The possibility of a military attack on Estonia cannot be ruled out if NATO’s collective deterrence is not credible. Military coercion and the probability of military deployment against Estonia or another state in the Baltic Sea region have increased. At the same time, NATO’s military predominance is sufficient to repel adversaries an attack now and in the near future. The visibility of NATO and the international security and defence cooperation, as well as the level of activity, has increased in the region; Baltic and Nordic states are engaging in more active cooperation. The European Union and its fundamental freedoms have come under pressure and their cohesion has decreased. Global recession, the economic difficulties of some member states and subsequent political instability, increasing pressures on European borders from migration, the grown threat from terrorism, and one member state’s decision to leave the Union are all testing its foundations and eroding its political impact and resilience,4 and may weaken the ties that bind the EU together. Signs of political radicalisation and the polarisation of politics are clearly evident in 4 A society’s resilience is its ability to recover quickly from the impact of negative phenomena, and restore its strength, flexibility and success. 4