46) Nuclear powers will continue to utilise the potential of strategic
nuclear forces’ capabilities and functions. It is not possible to exclude the
possibility of a new nuclear power emerging in the mid-term. Globally, the
potential and capabilities of strategic nuclear forces will be one of the main
sources of tensions.
47) The possibility of utilising low yield nuclear munitions at the tactical
or the operational-tactical level, the ability to adjust their effects (third
generation nuclear weapons), the utilisation of multiple independent re-entry
vehicles and the enhanced mobility of nuclear weapon systems (including
their platforms) are the main trends in the area of the military utilisation
of nuclear forces, besides that of deterrence and containment by strategic
nuclear forces (this function will probably be retained).
48) It is impossible to dismiss the likelihood that, in connection with the
dynamics of change of the global security environment, it will be imperative
to transform one of the pillars of international security – the international
system of arms control and disarmament. This will primarily involve
the system of treaties regarding regulations and the control of arms and
disarmament in the area of conventional and unconventional weapons,
cyberspace and outer space.
49) There will be attempts, in the area of arms control and disarmament,
to not only bind by treaty the largest number of actors possible, but also
to counter such attempts. Their essence will be the abandonment or the
non-involvement of particular actors in specific areas of armament and
disarmament covered by the existing system. These processes have the
potential of reactivating the spiral of an arms race of global proportions.
50) Questions of transforming the system of arms control and disarmament
is closely linked with other pillars of international security. In this context
the key questions concern mainly key subjects of international law (for
example the right of nations to self-determination vs. the territorial integrity
of a state) and issues related to justifying the very existence of systems of
common defence and collective security. The security architecture of
Europe is undergoing change and revision. This is the result of the system
of international law, as applied so far, being questioned, as well as of the
developments taking place in bilateral relations of the Russian Federation
with Ukraine on the one hand, and with NATO and the EU on the other.
These aspects will, to a large extent, influence the security of the Slovak
Republic.
51) How the situation in the eastern neighbourhood of NATO and the
EU develops will have a decisive impact on the security environment of the
Slovak Republic and her Allies. The current security situation in the eastern
parts of Ukraine will probably lead to an additional frozen conflict. Its
existence will create potential sources of tensions, which will also influence
the security situation throughout Ukraine with a possible spill-over to the
security of the Slovak Republic.
OF THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC
How the situation in the
eastern neighbourhood
develops will have
a decisive impact on the
security environment
of the Slovak Republic
and her Allies
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