46) Nuclear powers will continue to utilise the potential of strategic nuclear forces’ capabilities and functions. It is not possible to exclude the possibility of a new nuclear power emerging in the mid-term. Globally, the potential and capabilities of strategic nuclear forces will be one of the main sources of tensions. 47) The possibility of utilising low yield nuclear munitions at the tactical or the operational-tactical level, the ability to adjust their effects (third generation nuclear weapons), the utilisation of multiple independent re-entry vehicles and the enhanced mobility of nuclear weapon systems (including their platforms) are the main trends in the area of the military utilisation of nuclear forces, besides that of deterrence and containment by strategic nuclear forces (this function will probably be retained). 48) It is impossible to dismiss the likelihood that, in connection with the dynamics of change of the global security environment, it will be imperative to transform one of the pillars of international security – the international system of arms control and disarmament. This will primarily involve the system of treaties regarding regulations and the control of arms and disarmament in the area of conventional and unconventional weapons, cyberspace and outer space. 49) There will be attempts, in the area of arms control and disarmament, to not only bind by treaty the largest number of actors possible, but also to counter such attempts. Their essence will be the abandonment or the non-involvement of particular actors in specific areas of armament and disarmament covered by the existing system. These processes have the potential of reactivating the spiral of an arms race of global proportions. 50) Questions of transforming the system of arms control and disarmament is closely linked with other pillars of international security. In this context the key questions concern mainly key subjects of international law (for example the right of nations to self-determination vs. the territorial integrity of a state) and issues related to justifying the very existence of systems of common defence and collective security. The security architecture of Europe is undergoing change and revision. This is the result of the system of international law, as applied so far, being questioned, as well as of the developments taking place in bilateral relations of the Russian Federation with Ukraine on the one hand, and with NATO and the EU on the other. These aspects will, to a large extent, influence the security of the Slovak Republic. 51) How the situation in the eastern neighbourhood of NATO and the EU develops will have a decisive impact on the security environment of the Slovak Republic and her Allies. The current security situation in the eastern parts of Ukraine will probably lead to an additional frozen conflict. Its existence will create potential sources of tensions, which will also influence the security situation throughout Ukraine with a possible spill-over to the security of the Slovak Republic. OF THE SLOVAK REPUBLIC How the situation in the eastern neighbourhood develops will have a decisive impact on the security environment of the Slovak Republic and her Allies 33

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