Part Ⅰ Chapter 2 Security Environment Surrounding Japan North Korea Overview ● North Korea has conducted six nuclear tests so far, and is assessed to have already miniaturized nuclear weapons to fit ballistic missile warheads. In addition, North Korea repeatedly launches ballistic missiles in recent years at an unprecedented frequency, aiming to promote the development of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and ballistic missiles and the enhancement of its operation capabilities. Such military trends in North Korea pose grave and imminent threats to Japan’s security. ● At the U.S.-North Korea summit meeting held in June 2018, Chairman Kim expressed his intention to work towards the complete denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, but the second U.S.-North Korea summit meeting in February 2019 ended without any agreement being reached between the two countries. ● At the December 2019 Plenary Meeting of the Central Committee of the KWP, Chairman Kim announced the intention to continue developing strategic weapons until the United States rolls back its hostile policy towards North Korea. Nodong missile [Korean News Service/Jiji] Current Status of the Nuclear Development ● The possibility cannot be discounted that the sixth nuclear weapons test in September 2017 was of a hydrogen bomb. ● Given the technological maturity obtained through the past six nuclear tests, it is assessed that North Korea has already miniaturized nuclear weapons to fit ballistic missile warheads. Current Status of the Missile Development ● Since 2016, North Korea has launched more than 70 ballistic missiles and others, and the following characteristics have been observed: (i) increase the firing range of ballistic missiles; (ii) enhance the accuracy, continuous fire capability, and operational capabilities necessary for saturation attacks; (iii) improve its ability to conduct surprise attacks; (iv) develop ballistic missiles that fly at low altitudes on irregular trajectories; and (v) diversify the forms of launches. ● In particular, North Korea has developed more advanced missile-related technologies in recent years. The three types of new short-range ballistic missiles that have been involved in a series of launches since May 2019 are distinctive in that they use solid fuel and fly at lower altitudes than conventional ballistic missiles. North Korea is thus believed to be trying to breach missile defense networks, and there are concerns that such advanced technologies will be applied to longer-range missiles. ● North Korea is relentlessly pursuing increasingly complex and diverse modes of attack and is steadily strengthening and improving its attack capabilities. These enhancements in its capabilities make early detection of the signs of a launch Image publicly released by and the interception of the missiles more difficult, thereby posing new challenges North Korea when it launched short-range ballistic missiles for the information gathering, early warning, and interception postures of relevant (July 2019) [JANES] countries, including Japan. Image publicly released by North Korea when it launched an SLBM “Pukguksong-3” (October 2019) [JANES] Current Status of Ship-to-Ship Transfer, etc. ● North Korea is presumed to be evading the UN Security Council sanctions by conducting ship-to-ship transfers on the high seas and other techniques, and it is pointed out that in 2019, North Korea illicitly imported a volume of petroleum products far in excess of the cap set by UN Security Council resolutions. 19 DEFENSE OF JAPAN 2020