evolving. Within the European Union, divergent approaches concerning its further development are
emerging. There is also a noticeable risk of undermining the coherence of the positions and actions
of the member states of North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union, as a result
of increasing internal tensions and actions undertaken by external entities.
Moreover, persistent regional and internal conflicts in the Southern European Neighbourhood
pose another risk. Because of them, and as a result of a rapid population growth, as well as differences in the living standards, the migratory pressure has increased, which remains a challenge
to Europe’s security.
At the global level, an important phenomenon is the one of the growing strategic rivalry between
the United States of America, the People’s Republic of China and the Russian Federation, which affects
the entire international system.
In recent years, we have seen a wide range of armed conflicts, varying, among others, in their scale,
intensity, complexity and duration, and the blurring of boundaries between war and peace. Global
insecurity is also fueled inter alia by the undermining of disarmament treaties and agreements, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and the threat of terrorism and organised crime.
Activities below the threshold of war, including hybrid ones, will continue to constitute an important policy tool serving both state and non-state actors in achieving their objectives. One can
expect further development of capabilities allowing to carry out activities in many domains,
including cyberspace and outer space.
The development of new technologies, both civilian and military ones, contributes to significant increase in the employment of unmanned and autonomous systems, automated and robotized weapon
platforms using artificial intelligence, as well as long-range precision weapon systems, including
ballistic and cruise missiles. An increased likelihood of tactical nuclear weapons being used in a classical military operation, including as a means of de-escalation, is regarded as particularly dangerous.
Digital technologies are advancing rapidly. This generates the necessity for an efficient use
of cuttin g-edge technologies. Development of solutions based on fixed line and mobile broadband
(5G and subsequent generations), the Internet of Things, cloud computing, quantum technologies,
automation of services, machine learning, nanotechnology and artificial intelligence create new
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