Table of contents Preface by Federal Councillor Ignazio Cassis ii The 2028 vision in brief: A more focused, networked, agile Swiss foreign policy v 1 Introduction – why a 2028 Foreign Policy Vision? 1 2 The world in 2028 – what do we have to prepare for? 3 2.1. Political drivers: Switzerland in a fragmented world shaped by power politics 2.1.1. Geopolitics and nationalism 2.1.2. The international order under pressure 2.1.3. 2030 Agenda: progress towards development and global challenges 3 3 4 5 2.2. Ecological drivers: sustainability as the basis for prosperity and security 2.2.1. Critical thresholds of planetary boundaries have been reached 2.2.2. Climate change as a megatrend 7 7 8 2.3. Technological drivers: the digital transformation is picking up steam 2.3.1. A new phase in digitalisation 2.3.2. The fourth industrial revolution 9 9 9 2.4. Economic drivers: trade and production changes 2.4.1. Glocalisation 2.4.2. Fragmented global trade order 10 10 10 2.5. Social drivers: identity politics, inward turn and demands for greater say in decision-making 2.5.1. Defensive reflex against globalisation 2.5.2. Transnational movements 12 12 12 3 2028 Foreign Policy Vision 13 3.1. Foreign policy based on clearly defined interests and Switzerland’s value compass 3.1.1. A shared understanding of interests 3.1.2. Setting regional priorities 3.1.3. An eye on the major powers 3.1.4. Structured cooperation with like-minded states 13 13 16 18 19 3.2. Closely linking foreign and domestic policy to prevent a loss of trust 3.2.1. Closer cooperation with Parliament and the cantons 3.2.2. Expanding the dialogue on foreign policy 3.2.3. The Federal Council preserving the lead in foreign policy 3.2.4. Communication is integral to foreign policy 20 20 22 22 23 3.3. A greater focus on the needs of citizens and businesses 3.3.1. Tailored services abroad 3.3.2. Foreign policy is also foreign economic policy 3.3.3. Swiss business as a partner for the 2030 Agenda and climate change mitigation 24 24 25 26 3.4. Leveraging Swiss soft power for a more peaceful and stable world 3.4.1. The profile of development cooperation sharpened and anchored domestically 3.4.2. Switzerland’s good offices modernised and optimally positioned 3.4.3. Building bridges to consolidate a rules-based international order 27 27 31 33 3.5. Technology as a new topic of Swiss foreign policy 3.5.1. Switzerland as a hub for governance and innovation in new technologies 3.5.2. Tech diplomacy 3.5.3. Making foreign policy more effective 36 36 37 38 3.6. Self-confident with and vis-à-vis the EU 3.6.1. Regulated participation in the single market is the key 3.6.2. Preserving sectoral interests at all levels 3.6.3. Striking a balance between independence and partnering with Europe 39 39 40 41 4 Foundations of an agile foreign policy 42 About AVIS28 46 i