2.5. Social drivers: identity politics, inward turn and demands for greater say in decision-making Fragmentation also has an impact on society. The fundamental principles of the democratic model are increasingly contested in Western societies. Public discourse is suffused with unease towards political institutions and decision-makers. Protest movements are altering the party-political landscape. Domestic polarisation hampers effective governance. 2.5.1. Defensive reflex against globalisation The defensive reflex against globalisation has multiple causes, ranging from the failure to address the negative consequences of the financial and debt crisis of 2008 to the refugee crisis of 2015. The redefinition of values is also a defensive reflex against globalisation. While globalisation has narrowed the economic gap between developed and developing countries and opened up new opportunities for millions of people, it has also produced greater income inequality within many countries around the world. The job losses caused by the Fourth Industrial Revolution will potentially lead to more social protests. Moreover, as people become more affluent, many also fear that they will be deprived of their new prosperity. That is why scepticism of globalisation is increasingly widespread in countries that have largely benefited from it in recent decades. The challenge is all the greater as AI-generated deepfake technology that allows the digital manipulation of videos and images will make it increasingly difficult to distinguish genuine from false information. Social media encourage the fragmentation of values and political views. While social media allows people in an individualistic world to read news from sources they would not otherwise have access to and to exchange information with a wider range of people, it also creates echo chambers and filter bubbles that increasingly induce them to consume personalised information and filter out other opinions. This phenomenon can undermine social cohesion. 2.5.2. Transnational movements Digitalisation fosters the emergence of new transnational identities and movements. In virtual communities, people organise themselves across geographical and political boundaries. Young people’s current efforts to mitigate climate change are a prime example of this transnational dynamic. They are demanding a greater say in decision-making but are not sceptical of globalisation per se. The Me-Too movement is another example, but so are jihadist terrorism (Al-Qaeda and the ‘Islamic State’ group) and organised crime. Switzerland still enjoys a high level of social cohesion. But there is also growing unease in Switzerland about international regulatory processes, a fact that Swiss foreign policy should not ignore. Identity politics and an inward turn are becoming increasingly important factors in political life. Many people around the world feel a loss of democratic control. Wherever international rules and standards are laid down in response to globalisation, we also see calls to recover lost sovereignty. What is more, traditional political parties, particularly in Europe, are coming under growing pressure as a result of this dynamic. They are losing support just as political movements are attracting it. This political malaise is fanned both by state and non-state actors that are spreading disinformation. Open societies have become more vulnerable in the age of digitalisation. Strengthening societies’ resilience to fake news campaigns will be a major task. Schools will have to play a key role in teaching students how to judge news and information. The world in 2028 – what do we have to prepare for? 12