STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT  of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, members of NATO and the EU since 2004, are already under considerable pressure from Russia, and this will probably increase still further in the years to come. Jihadist and ethno-nationalist terrorism and violent extremism The terrorist threat in Europe and Switzerland comes primarily from the jihadist movement and its two main actors, ‘Islamic State’ and al-Qaeda. ‘Islamic State’ and the individuals and small groups controlled or inspired by it continue to be the dominant threat. The threat posed by al-Qae­ da persists. In Switzerland, the terrorist threat remains at a heightened level. Swiss nationals could also fall victim to kidnappings or attacks by terrorists in many places abroad. Ethno-nationalist terrorism and violent extremism remain relevant to the threat situation in Switzerland. The PKK, in particular, has the capacity to mobilise its supporters in Western Europe to take part in coordinated rallies and campaigns at short notice. This could lead to violence, particularly if Kurdish and Turkish nationalist groups were to come into contact with one another. Arson attack on the Police and Justice Centre construction site in Zurich; July 2017 20 SI TUATIO N R E P O RT 2018 | F I S Right-wing and left-wing extremism The potential for violence in right-wing extremist circles remains unchanged, while in leftwing extremist circles it has increased; as far as left-wing extremism is concerned, the situation has become more acute. Violence motivated by left-wing extremism is directed not only against property, but also against those perceived as right-wing extremists and, especially during police operations, against the security forces. When using violence, left-wing extremists often display extreme aggression. They are prepared to run the risk of injuring or killing the persons they attack, and in some cases this is even their aim. Even leaving such confrontations out of the equation, an increased number of acts of vio­ lence motivated by left-wing extremism were observed in the year under review. At the same time, there was also an increase in the intensity of the forms of violence resorted to. Leftwing extremists maintain and exploit their links with violent left-wing extremist groups abroad. Right-wing extremists are continuing to keep a low profile. Developments regarding asylum and migration have also contributed to the calm situation in this area – but the potential for violence in right-wing extremist circles, especially relating to asylum and migration, remains.