STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT jor challenge to Europe's security institutions, in which the goodwill between member states has been eroded by a series of overlapping internal crises, but whose stability since the Second World War has been one of the foundations of Swiss security and defence policy. underground. In Syria, Russian military intervention has saved President Bashar al-Assad's regime from collapse. Years of fierce battles for the commercial and population centres have not only left a the country devastated by war, but also a regime with greatly reduced capabilities to act as a force for order. In the next phase of the conflict, it is likely that negotiations about a political solution will gradually take on increasing importance, and for many actors the aim here will be to convert military gains into political influence. The country's old political order has been severely damaged, and the state's ability to ever again establish lasting control over the entire country has been called into question. In Iraq, Yemen, Libya and Mali, too, the loss of state control across large areas will continue to cause serious problems for years to come. This challenge to the ruling order and the resulting power-political shifts are also fuelling the old rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia. And there is no sign of a politi- Growing pressure from the Mediterranean region Pressure on Europe has also been increasing for a number of years in the eastern and southern Mediterranean regions. The Middle East and North Africa and the adjacent Sahel region continue to be the scene of complex and prolonged hostilities that are devastating for the governmental structures and the populations. Following the losses of its strongholds of Mosul and Raqqa in 2017, ‘Islamic State’ has lost the proto-state structure of its caliphate in Iraq and Syria and is turning back into a terrorist organisation that aims to continue its fight through clandestine structures operating NORWAY Number of asylum applications per 1000 3,4 2,2 inhabitants 2016 / 2017 SWITZERLAND 3,7* 2,7 GERMANY 5,0 EU member but not a full Schengen member DENMARK Neither an EU nor a Schengen member Temporary Border Controls due to Migration NETHERLANDS 2,8 BELGIUM 1,3 1,5 1,9 2,0 ITALY CZECH REP. AUSTRIA SWITZERLAND SLOVENIA FRANCE Ceuta (ESP) MOROCCO ROMANIA Eastern Med. route SERBIA ~33,750 BULGARIA MACEDONIA ~40,000 Western Mediterranean route ~28,350 GREECE TUNISIA Melilla (ESP) UKRAINE HUNGARY CROATIA SPAIN PORTUGAL Partial monitoring of flights to other Schengen states SLOVAKIA ITALY * excluding backlog from 2015 Border closed to asylum seekers POLAND GERMANY AUSTRIA FRANCE Schengen state SWEDEN ALGERIA ~300,000 State Secretariat for Migration / February 2018 (Mediterranean routes 2017) Central Mediterranean route ~119,350 >1 million ~13,500 TURKEY SYRIA CYPRUS IRAQ LIBYA EGYPT SIT UAT ION R E PORT 2 0 1 8 | FIS 17