18 National Security Strategy and Strategic Defence and Security Review
leadership role, building international partnerships to tackle AMR and other risks to global
health security.
The resurgence of state-based threats
3.18 Competition between states, and the threats they pose to each other, can have a
significant impact on our security and our interests. At the extreme, this risks drawing the UK
and our allies into military conflict. Regional conflict and instability can also trigger pressure
for the evacuation of British nationals. At the less extreme end, uncertainty can affect our
prosperity and the prosperity and security of some of our closest allies.
Russian behaviour
3.19 At the NATO summit in Lisbon in 2010, we committed to work with our Allies to build
a partnership with Russia. But since then Russia has become more aggressive, authoritarian
and nationalist, increasingly defining itself in opposition to the West. The illegal annexation
of Crimea in 2014 and continuing support to separatists in eastern Ukraine through the use of
deniable, hybrid tactics and media manipulation have shown Russia’s willingness to undermine
wider international standards of cooperation in order to secure its perceived interests.
3.20 Russia is mid-way through a programme of major investment to modernise and
upgrade its military, including its nuclear forces. It has also increased its nuclear exercises
and rhetoric, with threats to base nuclear forces in Kaliningrad and Crimea. Its military activity
around the territory of our Allies, and close to UK airspace and territorial waters, is designed to
test our responses. Russia’s behaviour will continue to be hard to predict, and, though highly
unlikely, we cannot rule out the possibility that it may feel tempted to act aggressively against
NATO Allies.
3.21 Our commitment to collective defence and security through NATO remains as strong
as ever. The 2014 Wales Summit, under UK leadership, delivered an effective and united
response to Russian behaviour. NATO’s commitments include the Allies’ defence investment
pledge and the Readiness Action Plan, which respond to the challenges posed by Russia and
their strategic implications, as well as to risks and threats to the south of Europe. With NATO
Allies we have made the Very High Readiness Joint Task Force a reality and our contributions
to the NATO Air Policing Mission in the Baltics will remain important to deter threats. At UK
urging, the EU has imposed sanctions designed to change Russian behaviour.
3.22 Russia is one of the five permanent members of the UN Security Council, and
notwithstanding our differences, we will seek ways of cooperating and engaging with Russia
on a range of global security issues, such as the threat from ISIL.
Wider state competition
3.23 Foreign intelligence agencies continue to engage in hostile activity against the UK
and our interests, and against many of our close allies. This includes human, technical and
cyber operations at home and overseas to compromise the UK Government, diplomatic
missions, government-held information and Critical National Infrastructure (CNI); attempts
to influence government policy covertly for their benefit; and operations to steal commercial
secrets and disrupt the private sector. Compromise or damage from these attacks may not
be immediately visible.