ST R AT E G IC E NV IR ONME NT Libya: continuing instability, possible increase in migration movements Europe’s principal interest in Libya is in curbing migration across the Mediterranean. Despite the strengthened measures taken by Libya and Italy to this end, Libya will remain the main departure point for crossings to Italy. Crossings from Tunisia are expected to increase. The migration agreement between the EU and Turkey applies only to migration by sea, not via the land border, where irregular border crossings increased in 2018 and are likely to persist in 2019. The battles being waged at the time of going to press around the capital Tripoli are unlikely to immediately lead to the reestablishment of the monopoly on the use of force, even if one side were to secure a military victory. Migration pressure on the western Mediterranean route to Spain will probably persist or even increase. Due to the continuing jihadist threat, the possibility remains that terrorists or individuals with terrorist motives will enter Europe in the flow of migrants. Thorough monitoring of migrants and of asylum documents is therefore still necessary. SIT UAT ION R E PORT 2 0 1 9 | FIS 33