ST R AT E G IC E NV IR ONME NT Nuclear arms control: ongoing blockade The nuclear arms control process between the USA and Russia has stalled since the signing in 2010 of the ʻNew STARTʼ treaty to limit strategic nuclear forces. From the Russian point of view, possible advances in missile defence and the increasing importance of conventional precision weapons are among the arguments against further nuclear disarmament. Arms control sceptics in the USA point in particular to Russia’s violations of the INF Treaty and the fundamental doubts these raise about Russian compliance with the treaty. Nonetheless, the ʻNew STARTʼ treaty’s limits are being observed by both sides, and the treaty, with its detailed verification regime, also provides effective means for monitoring. New START will expire in February 2021, but provides for the possibility of an extension for another five years without renewed ratification. While Russia’s President Putin has declared his readiness to extend the treaty, the USA has not yet made its decision. China: practically unstoppable progress China will continue to do everything in its power to grow in economic and military terms. The USA under President Trump, however, no longer wants to stand idly by watching China’s seemingly unstoppable rise to becoming an anti-liberal superpower. The USA’s opposition means that President Xi Jinping is now at a political crossroads: should China align itself with the rules of the international market economy, even domestically, or continue to stake everything on economic, political and military dominance? China is capable of adapting pragmatically to new frame conditions and making tactical concessions. It will try to prevent the formation of an anti-Chinese block. However, a fundamental departure from its current course of authoritarian rule internally and pursuit of dominance externally is very unlikely. Iran: no capitulation to the USA The fundamental change in Iran’s attitude sought by the USA will not take place. The Iranian leadership will try to wait out Trump’s presidency with strategic patience. Iran will initially continue to observe the treaty provisions of the nuclear deal, which in 2016 put an end to its extensive international political isolation. However, it will continue to support anti-Israeli forces in the region, albeit with a significantly reduced financial input. Furthermore, Iran will not renounce its ballistic missile programme, thanks to which it already possesses accurate short-range missiles. A collapse of the Iranian regime remains unlikely despite repeated flare-ups of public protest. SIT UAT ION R E PORT 2 0 1 9 | FIS 31