ST R AT E G IC E NV IR ONME NT What does the FIS expect? Russia: continuing military threat The pressure exerted by a resurgent Russia, on Eastern Europe in particular, is likely to increase further. The ideological stance of the Russian leadership continues to focus its attention on Ukraine, where a war with periodic fragile ceasefires has been ongoing in the east of the country since 2014. Long-term control of Ukraine is key to the establishment of a Russian zone of influence. Belarus has already been very much reintegrated into Russia's sphere of influence. The Baltic states, too, are under considerable pressure from Russia, which is likely to increase further in the years to come. The US efforts to strengthen NATO militarily are primarily about keeping Russia from undertaking military actions against NATO allies in Europe. Russia wants to be perceived as a resurgent superpower on an equal footing with the USA. However, existing restrictions on the military capacity of its air and naval forces, in particular, will remain in place for some time to come, partly because of Russia's limited economic strength. In future, Russia will therefore make greater use of a wide range of methods from the field of influence operations. These range from grey-area activities, such as information campaigns, manipulation and propaganda, to overt political, military and economic pressure. The practices of extortion and, in certain cases, committing violent actions are likely to continue. SIT UAT ION R E PORT 2 0 1 9 | FIS 29