J IH ADIST AND E T H NO -NAT IONALIST T E R R OR ISM What does the FIS expect? The ‘Islamic State’ will remain the dominant terrorist organisation Jihadism as propagated by the ʻIslamic Stateʼ and al-Qaeda will continue to be the dominant terrorist threat in Europe in the years to come. The ʻIslamic Stateʼ and its supporters and sympathisers will remain the key actors. The ʻIslamic Stateʼ will also remain the most influential resistance group among Arab Sunnis in eastern Syria and central Iraq beyond 2018. It does not appear that any other group will be able to take over its leadership position. Iraq will remain the cradle of the ʻIslamic Stateʼ. The soil on which Sunni jihadist ideology thrived will continue to remain fertile. In this environment, the ʻIslamic Stateʼ will continue to be able to rely on a broad network of supporters and sympathisers from which it can continuously recruit new fighters. Jihadism will remain a threat to Europe Irrespective of the current state of individual groups, jihadist ideology is still popular; the utopia of a global caliphate, the legitimisation of the use of violence in order to bring about such a caliphate and the associated glorification of martyrdom live on in many minds. Sympathisers and supporters of the jihadist movement will continue SIT UAT ION R E PORT 2 0 1 9 | FIS 43