This challenge will not be unique to the UK, creating mutual vulnerability for all those who rely on cyberspace. 37. Cyberspace will become more contested as state and non-state actors seek strategic advantage in and through cyberspace. Cyber operations will become increasingly important to power projection below the threshold of armed conflict and in pre-conflict situations. Future conflicts will also see an increase in the use of cyber capabilities. For the UK to act effectively we will require higher levels of cyber resilience in our defence capabilities. Cyber operations will need to be integrated with other force elements to defeat threats and enable wider defence activity. Space will increasingly become a domain of activity, as set out in the National Space Strategy, opening up new areas of risk but also creating opportunities for the UK to exploit its cyber capabilities to achieve advantage in new ways.18 38. Debates over the rules governing cyberspace will increasingly become a site of systemic competition between great powers, with a clash of values between countries that want to preserve a system based on open societies and systemic competitors like China and Russia who are promoting greater state control as the only way to secure cyberspace. This will put pressure on the free and open internet, as nation states, big technology firms and other actors promote competing approaches to technical standards and internet governance. 18 HMG, National Space Strategy (2021) 30 National Cyber Strategy 39. This will be exacerbated by competition for control of a rapidly evolving technological landscape. As digital technology is integrated into our everyday lives, businesses and infrastructure, some technologies are becoming genuinely critical to the functioning of society. Power will increasingly be held by countries that have a strategic advantage in science and technology and access to the data that drives innovation, enabling them to exert influence over others and to shape global standards in ways that best fit their own economic and political interests. 40. Emerging technologies such as digital twins, quantum computing, and large-scale autonomous systems – and the information they generate – will create new opportunities and risks and open up new cyber capabilities for attackers and defenders, just as cryptocurrencies are being exploited by ransomware gangs. Leadership in technology is becoming more distributed, and the UK will not be able to develop sovereign capability in all the technologies that matter. States and companies make use of technical standards to promote their own interests and we risk key technologies being shaped by those who do not share our values. 41. For over a decade the UK has pursued an ambitious national cyber security strategy and sustained a significant level of investment, establishing the country as a global leader in cyber. As evident from the analysis above, significant challenges and opportunities remain. The following sections outline our national response.

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