Working Worldwide for the Security of the Netherlands 2.3 Acceleration of technological developments and hybrid conflicts Technological and digital developments are rapidly changing the field of security. That presents opportunities to enhance Dutch prosperity and security, as the Netherlands is a leading producer of high-grade knowledge and has great adaptive and creative capacities. According to the Netherlands Institute for Social Research (SCP), the country’s prosperity and quality of life are rising steadily, and people are more optimistic about the economy.6 Technological developments present new opportunities for international cooperation, increasing our resilience and civic participation. At the same time, highgrade technologies are becoming more advanced, cheaper and more widely available. Self-driving vehicles, robotisation, synthetic biology and artificial intelligence offer opportunities for society but, in the wrong hands, could quickly create security risks. This gives states greater opportunities to engage in hybrid conflicts. That also applies to threats and activities that fall short of overt violence. Technology is becoming more accessible, costs are lower and it is easier to deploy different instruments simultaneously and in combination. | 16 | Partly as a result of technological developments and a globalised world, hybrid conflict has become a more urgent problem. It often takes place in the twilight zone on the verge of traditional armed conflict. Typically, states now use a hybrid mix of conventional weapons and modern methods of exerting influence. They employ a combination of military, diplomatic and economic resources and media influence to achieve strategic objectives. Increasingly, they try to influence democratic processes and spread disinformation in other countries, engage in espionage and cyberattacks, take economic measures and create strategic dependency. These tactics also include deliberately disrupting international cooperation. More widespread digitalisation and hyperconnectivity make these instruments more efficient and effective than before. Because deception, ambiguity and denial are key to state actors engaging in hybrid conflict, they often use proxies who appear not to be associated with the state. At the same time, inadequate regulation – for example of the digital and information sectors – present opportunities for ill-intentioned parties, who can cause damage without crossing a clear line. As an added complication, governance always lags behind innovation: technological developments by definition run ahead of regulation and supervision. 6. SCP reports Social State of the Netherlands (8 December 2017) and Burgerperspectieven (‘Public Outlook’) 2017|4 (29 December 2017). Working Worldwide for the Security of the Netherlands The great economic and social importance of digitalisation is beyond dispute. Alongside benefits like big data and the user-friendliness of the internet of things, however, there are some serious risks. These include the erosion of privacy, unverifiable systems and a growing gap between the technically proficient and the computer illiterate. The services of large tech companies offer substantial added value for society, but their dominant position, their impact on information flows and their massive gathering and control of data present serious risks. There is growing social concern about these risks, partly because they can also have implications for national security. 2.4 Tensions in the Netherlands and Europe Besides these trends, which create external security risks, there is another potentially growing security problem in the Netherlands and Europe, related to a loss of confidence in politics and government among a significant proportion of the population. Tensions are also arising between different groups in the Netherlands and the rest of Europe, a so-called ‘clash within civilisations’. In other European countries and, to a lesser extent, in the Netherlands, forms of extremism are emerging that dispute the legitimacy of our democratic legal order and aim to replace our political system and way of life with something else. Existing political parties and governments in some Eastern European countries are increasingly advocating more autocratic, illiberal versions of democracy. Developments around Brexit, the stability of the euro, the debt problem of countries like Greece, and the sometimes heated discussions on more or less European integration have a direct impact on the Netherlands’ vulnerability and resilience in Europe. For that reason, these issues are relevant for Dutch and European strategic thinking. | 17 |