turn out to be problematic in the distant future, they must be acknowledged and measures needed
to solve certain issues should be discussed now.
The biggest issue that depends on Estonia itself and may turn out to be a security risk is its
demographic condition. The Estonian population is ageing and decreasing. Global demographic
trends are the opposite and, if their influence is combined with potential negative changes in the
living environment, an economic recession, radicalisation and conflicts or crises, it may be that
waves of migration of a magnitude never before seen will occur, and Estonia will become a
potential target country for these.
In 2015, the UN General Assembly adopted 17 Sustainable Development Goals in the 2030
Agenda for Sustainable Development. Achieving these would reduce the root causes of conflicts
and create global conditions for the survival of humankind. Relevant measures concerning
environmental, economic and social development should alleviate tensions arising from poverty,
inequality, environmental degradation, bad governance, population growth and low employment,
and help to create conditions that allow the global population (which will potentially number
more than ten billion) to coexist and develop peacefully. Should the global society fail in
reaching these goals, security pressures will increase and tensions will become keener. These
may grow into a large-scale conflict or global chaos. As a member of the global community and
a recognised developed country, Estonia must participate in promoting sustainable development,
and society has a distinct role in achieving the aforementioned goals. First and foremost, this
consists in admitting that Estonian society is a part of the rest of the world and that we are
responsible for what is happening there. If we consciously and deliberately participate in the
process, the results will be better and more substantial. Security risks will be neutralised more
effectively if we do not ignore the process or pay little attention to it.
Technological evolution is speeding up and its influence on security and warfare, as well as on
people’s daily life and behaviour, is evident. Modern smart technologies and their applications
will be replaced by next-generation intelligent technologies able to make decisions
independently in addition to analysing information. The application of artificial intelligence,
genetics, bio- and nanotechnology and our increasing ability to harness solar and magnetic fusion
energy create new possibilities that will change our living environment and existence to a
remarkable extent. Besides the major positive impacts, the use of new technologies will also be
accompanied by threats and risks; old ones will be complemented by new that require novel
countermeasures and solutions. In the context of security and defence, this means that if a
potential opponent’s technological solutions are very advanced, we need to work hard to ensure
that the defence organised against them is smart, preventive and well thought through. Procuring
strategic security technology and acquiring, developing and applying the knowledge and skills
related to it are important and inescapably necessary to all independent states, and Estonia needs
to pay more attention to this.
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