7 WHITE 1. LONG-TERM CHALLENGES TO LITHUANIA’S SECURITY Membership in NATO and the EU is the basis of Lithuania’s defence policy; therefore the security of Lithuania depends on the successful development of these organisations. The project of a united Europe faces various challenges: Brexit, tensions in the Eurozone, different responses of EU members to the flows of illegal migration, the growing threat of home-grown terrorism, and the rising of anti-EU attitudes, to name just a few. NATO has made decisions to strengthening collective defence and deterrence; however, the remaining gap between the defence spending of the U.S. and the European Allies is a political issue on the U.S. internal policy agenda and raises tensions in the Euro-Atlantic community. In this context, three main challenges have emerged, which will impact Lithuania’s security, not only in the short-term but also in the longer-term perspective. The long-term challenges to Lithuania’s security 1. Russian revisionism 2. Information and cyber threats 3. Threats rising in NATO’s Southern neighbourhood The first and foremost challenge is Russia’s dissatisfaction with the international order established after the Cold War, and its ambition to regain its status as a major power while violating international norms and disrupting the rules-based European security system. Russia’s foreign and security policy is characterised by its growing aggressiveness as more and more significance is given to the use of military power to reach its goals. By using military force against Georgia and Ukraine, Russia severely violated the sovereignty and territorial integrity of these countries. The annexation of Crimea was the first time after the Cold War when one European country added the territory of another state to its own, by force. With this act, Russia showed that it does not respect the rights of other countries to independently choose the way to develop their own security. It also demonstrated its readiness to use all available means to dismantle the architecture of Euro-Atlantic security. Russia’s capacity to use civil (economic and energy blackmail, political corruption, cyber-attacks, information operations, etc.) and military means in a very coordinated manner so as to conduct covert operations, raises a particularly great concern. The growing Russian military capabilities are also more worrisome as a large share of Russia’s defence expenditures is allocated to the reform and rearmament of its Armed Forces with the priority given to the manning and equipping of their permanent readiness units. In fact, Russia’s military modernisation is largely concentrated in the Western Military District, including the Kaliningrad Region. Russia is rapidly developing Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2AD) capabilities in Crimea, the Kola Peninsula and Kaliningrad Region. In the Kaliningrad region, which borders Lithuania, Russia is building up its air defence, missile, artillery, coastal defence, naval and radio-electronic capabilities, which in case of military conflict, could block NATO reinforcement coming into the Baltic states by PA P E R