•
Tier 2 - Substantial Threats. These are both likely and high-impact, but are not as
severe as Tier 1 Threats.
•
Tier 3 - Significant Potential Risks. These are high-impact, but low-probability.
•
Tier 4 - Future Risks. These are threats where the probability and impact cannot be
assessed at this stage.
VIII.
Tier 1 Threats consist of the mutually-reinforcing relationship between transnational
organised criminal activities involving illicit drugs and illegal guns; gangs and
organised crime; cyber-crime; financial crimes and corruption. Tier 1 Threats are the
main drivers of current criminality levels, and has the potential to cripple the already fragile
socio-economic developmental progress in CARICOM and the advancement of CSME. Tier
1 Threats are the Immediate Significant Threats to the Community and are primarily
responsible for the Caribbean having one of the highest homicide rates in the world - 30
people killed for every 100,000 inhabitants; (compared to a world average of 5).
IX.
The criminality perpetuated by the Tier 1 Threats is driven by the desire and pursuit of
profit, power and prestige. The criminals are supported by the facilitators which consist of
unscrupulous and corrupt professionals within key sectors of the economy such as the
financial, legal, justice, law enforcement and security, public officials and even government
officials who help them to secure and conceal their assets.
X.
Organised crime depends on the facilitators of criminality. It is the facilitators who
operate both in the licit and illicit world who shield organised crime and allow it to flourish.
There are also a range of social factors that enable and support this criminality, including
large economic disparities, poverty, the rising cost of living, social exclusion and
marginalisation, unemployment and multiple governance failures.
XI.
Tier 2 Threats are Substantial Threats to the Region. They include human trafficking and
smuggling, natural disasters and public disorder crimes.
XII.
Tier 3 Risks consist of Significant Potential Risks and include attacks on critical
infrastructure and terrorism.
XIII.
Tier 4 Risks consist of Future Risks, with unknown probabilities and consequences. They
include climate change, pandemics and migratory pressure.
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