Radicalisation and terrorism. Terrorism will remain a major threat over the coming decade, with a more diverse range of material and political causes, new sources of radicalisation and evolving tactics. In the UK, the main sources of terrorist threat are from Islamist and Northern Ireland-related terrorism, and far-right, far-left, anarchist and single-issue terrorism. In Northern Ireland, there remains a risk that some groups could seek to encourage and exploit political instability. Overseas, poor governance and disorder, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, is likely to increase space for terrorist and extremist groups to operate. There is a realistic possibility that state sponsorship of terrorism and the use of proxies will increase. It is likely that a terrorist group will launch a successful CBRN attack by 2030. Serious and organised crime and illicit finance. SOC will continue to have a significant impact on UK citizens. The scale and complexity of SOC will likely increase – aided by new technologies – and will adapt to events faster than governments. Most SOC will continue to be transnational: criminals will source illicit goods, exploit the vulnerable and defraud UK citizens and businesses from overseas. SOC will also enable threats such as state threats and terrorism, and will undermine regional stability, especially in post‑conflict zones. It will continue to be facilitated by cross-border flows of illicit finance, with tens of billions of pounds likely to be laundered through the UK every year. 32 Integrated Review