Rapid technological change: science and technology as a metric of power
S&T will be of central importance to the strategic context: critical to the functioning of
economies and societies, reshaping political systems and a source of both cooperation
and competition between states. This will unfold in a number of ways:
A rapidly changing landscape. The S&T landscape has changed significantly
since 2015 and the pace of change will accelerate further to 2030. Novel
technologies and applications are being developed and adopted faster than ever
before. AI is accelerating scientific discovery; quantum technologies are expected
to bring advances in medical imaging and in measuring electric, magnetic and
gravitational fields; and advances in clean technologies will equip us with new and
cheaper tools to tackle climate change. New analytical techniques are producing
greater insight from increasing volumes of data, enabling innovation.
S&T as an arena of systemic competition. Over the coming decade,
the ability to advance and exploit S&T will be an increasingly important metric
of global power, conferring economic, political and military advantages.
The tech ‘superpowers’ are investing to maintain their lead. At the same time,
many more countries are now able to compete in S&T, while large technology
companies are able to grow more powerful by absorbing innovations produced
by small companies. Competition is therefore intensifying, shaped in particular
by multinational firms with the backing of states, some of which take a ‘wholeof-economy’ approach to ensure dominance in critical areas. Maintaining a
competitive edge will rely on preeminence in and access to technology – as well as
access to the human and natural resources needed to harness it – and the ability
to protect intellectual property. As the volume of data grows exponentially, the
ability to generate and use it to drive innovation will be a crucial enabler of strategic
advantage through S&T.
New challenges to security, society and individual rights. Technology will
create new vulnerabilities to hostile activity and attack in domains such as
cyberspace and space, notably including the spread of disinformation online.
It will undermine social cohesion, community and national identity as individuals
spend more time in a virtual world and as automation reshapes the labour market.
While the exploitation of personal data will support the growth of innovation,
it will also pose challenges to individual privacy and liberty, including through the
increased availability of surveillance technologies.
Technology and data standards. Technological advances have always driven
global rule-making. But in the years ahead, the enormous pace of change is likely
to result in a growing gap between what technological advances make possible
and the limits of existing global governance. This will make frontier spaces –
and the technologies, infrastructure and data underpinning their use – subject to
intense competition over the development of rules, norms and standards.
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