Decreasing global poverty. Global poverty has reduced markedly in recent decades, and is projected to fall to under 5% by 2050. After the immediate shock of COVID-19, the momentum towards poverty reduction is likely to resume, with absolute poverty estimated to be almost eliminated in Asia and Latin America in the 2030s. Under current trends, however, Africa will increasingly be left behind: by 2045, it is likely that around 85% of the poorest billion people will live in Africa. Improvements in global education. Over the coming decades, technology is likely to significantly improve access to and the quality of education globally. By 2050, almost anyone is likely to have easy access to online education, with technology becoming increasingly portable, accessible and high-speed. This is likely to help sustain improvements in global literacy rates. In 2000, 81% of the world’s population was able to read; by 2016 this had increased to 86% and by 2050 it is likely to be around 95%. Changing demographics. The global population is expected to reach 8.6 billion by 2030. Population growth will be greatest in sub-Saharan Africa, interacting with other trends, including climate change, poverty and conflict and instability. Globally, demographic imbalances will become more pronounced, with ageing populations in more parts of the world. Geopolitical importance of middle powers. Increasing great power competition is unlikely to mean a return to Cold War-style blocs. Instead, the influence of middle powers is likely to grow in the 2020s, particularly when they act together. In this context, the Indo-Pacific will be of increasing geopolitical and economic importance, with multiple regional powers with significant weight and influence, both alone and together. Competition will play out there in regional militarisation, maritime tensions, and a contest over the rules and norms linked to trade and technology. Challenges to democratic governance. The geopolitical role of non-state actors, in particular large tech companies, is likely to continue to grow. In some democracies, inequality – made more visible by digital technology – may increase social and political dissatisfaction. Governments may struggle to satisfy popular demands for security and prosperity, with trust further undermined through disinformation from malign actors. Authoritarian states will face and confront similar challenges with a different toolkit, including the use of technologies for surveillance and political control. III. The national security and international environment to 2030 27