In the short-term outlook for the next three years, several emerging trends are expected to persist. Cyberattacks in connection with geopolitical events Cyberattacks in response to geopolitical events or other politically sensitive events, not necessarily limited to the context of the conflict in Ukraine, are likely (55–70 %) to continue. Involvement of hacktivist groups The involvement of various hacktivist groups is expected, but other types of actors cannot be ruled out (25–50 %). Phishing campaigns and ransomware attacks It is also highly likely (75–85 %) that broad phishing campaigns against both national authorities and private entities will continue, along with ransomware attacks across multiple sectors. 13