S ecurity E nvironment The progressive decomposition of the international order adversely affects the security environment of Poland, hindering the pursuit of national interests and the achievement of strategic objectives. As a result of these changes, the security environment has become uncertain and unpredictable, resulting, among others, from the lack of respect for international law and failure to meet international obligations. The number of security threats and challenges of diverse nature is on the rise. The most serious threat is the neo-imperial policy of the authorities of the Russian Federation, pursued also by means of military force. The aggression against Georgia, the illegal annexation of Crimea and activities in eastern Ukraine have violated the basic principles of international law and undermined the pillars of the European security system. The Russian Federation is intensively developing its offensive military capabilities (including in the western strategic direction), extending Anti-Access/Area Denial systems inter alia in the Baltic Sea region, including the Kaliningrad Oblast, and conducting large-scale military exercises, based on scenarios assuming a conflict with the NATO member states, a rapid deployment of large military formations, and even the use of nuclear weapons. Furthermore, the Russian Federation carries out activities below the threshold of war (of hybrid nature), which pose the risk of the outbreak of a conflict (including an unintentional one, originating from a violent escalation as a result of an incident, especially a military one), and undertakes multi-faceted and comprehensive actions using non-military means (including: cyber-attacks, disinformation) to destabilise the structures of Western states and societies and to create divisions among Allies. It should be assumed that that the Russian Federation will continue its policy of undermining the current international order, based on international law, in order to rebuild its power and spheres of influence. The basic factor shaping Poland’s security is its strong embedding in the transatlantic and European structures and the development of bilateral and regional cooperation with key partners. Over recent years, the transatlantic relationship, as well as the process of the European integration, have been put to the test. The strategic bonds between the United States of America and its European allies are 6

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