World population by region and income 2017 2040 Population by region Each figure represents one billion people Population by income level and region Level 1 2$ / day Level 2 8$ / day Level 3 32$ / day Level 4 Each cube represents 100 million people Africa and Europe face diametrically opposed demographic challenges: Africa has a very young population (40% of Africans are under the age of 15) for whom jobs will have to be created. It is estimated that 800 million people will enter the labour market by 2050. Dynamic entrepreneurship is fast becoming the key to Africa’s future. Europe, in contrast, will have to deal with the problems of an ageing population. The rising costs of the welfare state, coupled with stalled reforms in many countries, are compounding the challenges. Level 1 2$ / day Level 2 8$ / day Level 3 32$ / day Level 4 Source: Hans Rosling, Factfulness, 2018 Instability in Europe’s southern neighbourhood not only drives migration to Europe but also poses a persistent threat of jihadist terrorism. It is conceivable that technological developments will allow terrorism to become smarter and more dangerous in the future. Depending on the political and economic situation, there is also a risk of an increase in left-wing or right-wing extremist violence. Migration will remain a crucial political issue. An increase in rural-urban migration and in migratory pressure from the South to the North are to be expected. While the rate of migration is rising only moderately in relation to the world’s population, the relative share of migration towards Europe, the United States and the Gulf States has increased: In 2017, 30% of the world’s 258 million migrants lived in Europe. Half of them migrated within Europe. Migration policy will likely continue to focus on preventing irregular migration from Africa. Europe will continue to face migratory pressure. The world in 2028 – what do we have to prepare for? 6