JIHADIST AND ETHNO-NATIONALIST TERRORISM AND VIOLENT EXTREMISM | ASSESSMENT A SSESSMENT ‘Islamic State’ continues to lead the way Despite the loss of most of its territory in Iraq and Syria, ‘Islamic State’ continues to pose a significant terrorist threat to Europe. It retains the capability to launch actions there, albeit in a greatly limited way. As yet, no other jihadist organisation in the Levant has been able to take over ‘Islamic State’'s leadership role, and there is no sign of any successor organisation to replace it. For the time being, ‘Islamic State’ therefore remains the leading jihadist terrorist organisation worldwide, but it has lost much of its former potency and appeal. Going back underground The retreat underground and the continuation of the jihadist struggle in the form of a decentralised resistance movement employing guerilla tactics and terrorist methods should not be viewed as a change in its strategic objectives. Rather, it is a change in the way in which it plans to use violence in order to achieve the strategic objectives. Its withdrawal underground takes ‘Islamic State’ back to the place where it enjoyed its initial successes. Today, however, it is able to draw on a wide network that extends beyond the borders of Syria and Iraq and also on the expertise that it has built up over a period of years. The terrorist organisation today is more firmly rooted and has a better network of transnational connections beyond its Sunni region of origin than was the case when the caliphate was proclaimed in summer 2014. Some of ‘Islamic State’'s decen- trally organised media structures and logistics cells are probably still in place. After all, dissemination of ideology over the Internet is not geographically restricted. Another factor is that an important breeding ground on which the jihadist ideology has been able to develop has, in the FIS's view, become even more fertile. After the destruction of the caliphate, Arab Sunnis remain the overall losers in the Levant. Loss of the main sources of revenue With the loss of the territories it controlled previously, ‘Islamic State’ has lost its main sources of revenue (taxes, sale of oil and gas, seized cultural objects, fines). The remaining networks and cells therefore finance themselves primarily through activities familiar from organised crime (extortion, protection money, ransom money, theft, etc.). However, the loss of the territory it controlled, its military units and the administrative bodies it established means that its expenses are also decreasing. Furthermore, promoting its ideology and putting out propaganda on the Internet are inexpensive and can continue even in financially and militarily precarious situations. Al-Qaeda still in the shadow of ‘Islamic State’ The threat posed by al-Qaeda persists. Core al-Qaeda has lost the bulk of its operational capabilities and resources, but it still harbours the intention of carrying out attacks on Western targets. Some of its regional affiliates still have considerable influence in their respective SIT UAT ION R E PORT 2 0 1 8 | FIS 43