STRATEGIC ENVIRONMENT velopment of Turkey into an assertive regional power. Turkey perceives the turmoil in Syria and Iraq as a threat to its core national security interests, particularly in the light of the proclamation of Kurdish autonomy in northern Syria, backed by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK). Turkey is responding to Europe in an increasingly assertive and decisive way and by using all available resources of state power. The gradual repression of democratic and constitutional norms is one aspect of a broader development. Turkey has ambitions to shape its strategic environment between Europe, Russia and the Middle East independently of Western ideas of order, but is acting circumspectly, aware that it cannot sacrifice strategic relations with the West. While negotiations with the EU on the future shape of strategic relations have not been formally terminated, tensions with Europe are increasing. The reasons for this include the exploitation of widely entrenched Turkish nationalism and action against real and alleged opponents of the government, not only in Turkey but also in Europe. After decades of prospects of a partnership developing between Turkey and Europe, relations have reached a critical point where cooperation on migration and counter-terrorism issues as well as NATO's cohesion and operational capability on its south-eastern borders are at stake. Switzerland can not remain immune to the risks caused by the difficult and protracted transformation processes taking place in the Middle East and North Africa. Migration from the crisis areas, especially migration to Europe via Libya, has become one of the two greatest and most pressing challenges, due to its potential consequences for security policy. Europe is working to contain and manage the consequences of the crisis situation, as without any imminent prospect of stabilisation in the region, where the disintegration of systems of government does not yet appear to have reached its lowest point, migration pressure on Europe is set to continue at a high level for years to come, which will provide a further boost for nationalist parties. The other major challenge is to tackle the increased threat of terrorism from the region. The phenomenon of jihad-motivated travel, above all the issue of returnees, remains a serious security problem for Western states. Switzerland is among those affected by this. However, the authorities will also need to continue to pay close attention to numerous other problem areas: the threat to the security of diplomatic missions, terrorist threats and kidnappings in the region, the disruption of trade and of energy supplies, coping with sanctions regimes and managing the assets of politically exposed persons. Focus: Russia The Russian leadership controls the state via a vast apparatus of government agencies vested with extensive powers to control the domestic situation, the economy and society. This apparatus is mostly led by close associates of the president with a proven personal loyalty to Putin. With this power apparatus consolidated internally, the Russian leadership is now working to restore the historically and ideologically deeply-rooted Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, from the Baltic Sea to the Black Sea. The three Baltic states SIT UAT ION R E PORT 2 0 1 8 | FIS 19