Chapter 3 – The National Security Context 21 substantial nationwide disruption brought about by industrial action. We need to be prepared to respond quickly and effectively to frequent and unpredictable emergencies, both locally and where necessary nationally. Major natural disasters overseas 3.38 Major natural disasters overseas can put at risk the safety and security of British nationals, our CNI and the supply chains on which we rely, such as energy, food and technology. Our response often includes a humanitarian element. For example, after the Nepal earthquake in 2015, the UK provided a humanitarian and reconstruction aid package as well as assistance on the ground. Energy security 3.39 Global energy security can be affected by regional disputes, instability, terrorism and cyber threats, and more positively by technological developments. 3.40 Our investments in nuclear, shale, renewable and other innovative technologies will increasingly generate new sources of energy for the UK. But oil and gas production from the UK continental shelf will gradually decline and our reliance on imported hydrocarbons is likely to grow over the next few decades. Currently, around 40% of the oil we use is imported, and projections suggest that this could increase to 73% by 2030. Further measures to protect and diversify sources of supply will become increasingly important, including the new Southern Corridor pipeline, US liquid natural gas (LNG) exports, further supplies of Australian LNG, and increased supply from Norway and North Africa. Working through international energy organisations and expanding their membership is an important way of mitigating future supply risks and managing growing demand effectively. The global economy 3.41 Advanced economies have made a slow though meaningful recovery from the global economic crisis. But progress has been uneven and vulnerabilities remain, particularly in the euro area and Japan. Recent downward revisions of long-term growth potential in both advanced and emerging economies are a concern, and should spur action to deliver structural reforms that can drive long-run productivity growth. Despite considerable progress, China still faces significant challenges in delivering the necessary reforms for a more sustainable growth model. Commodity exporters face difficult adjustments amid declining prices. The growing level of corporate debt in emerging markets increases risks, especially where it leads to greater foreign currency exposure. Russia’s actions in Ukraine and continuing instability in the Middle East, North and West Africa illustrate the scope for political disputes adversely to affect global markets and regional growth prospects. Climate change and resource scarcity 3.42 By 2030, the world could face demands for 50% more food and energy and 30% more water, while their availability becomes threatened by climate change. The Middle East and North Africa region will be particularly at risk, given existing high levels of water stress and high rates of population growth. Sub-Saharan Africa may suffer from climate change impacts on crop production in particular. Rising sea levels threaten coastal cities and small islands. More frequent extreme weather events are likely to disrupt populations, agriculture and supply chains, making political instability, conflict and migration more likely.