Chapter 3 – The National Security Context 19
3.24 More generally, wider state competition can be a risk to stability. In the Middle East
and North Africa, regional powers have been pursuing competing security interests, driven
by growing military and economic capabilities. Both South Asia and South East Asia continue
to grow in economic importance and political significance, but this has come with increased
tensions, exacerbated by unresolved historical disputes. North Korea is the only state to test a
nuclear weapon in the 21st century, and its continued pursuit of nuclear weapons and ballistic
missiles is a serious concern.
The role of technology
Cyber
3.25 The UK increasingly relies on networked technology in all areas of society, business
and government, and this has brought significant benefits. There is inherent resilience in the
internet’s decentralised nature. But we are vulnerable to attacks on parts of networks that are
essential for the day-to-day running of the country and our economy.
3.26 The range of cyber actors threatening the UK has grown. The threat is increasingly
asymmetric and global. Reliable, consistent cyber defence typically requires advanced skills
and substantial investment. But growing numbers of states, with state-level resources, are
developing advanced capabilities which are potentially deployable in conflicts, including
against CNI and government institutions. And non-state actors, including terrorists and cyber
criminals can use easily available cyber tools and technology for destructive purposes.
3.27 New forms of communication empower individuals and groups to communicate rapidly.
But encrypted communications, often provided by global companies operating outside
the UK, will continue to be used by terrorists and organised crime groups. The relationship
between individual privacy and national security is increasingly challenging, and increasingly
important to get right. For security reasons, Western states will want access – within a narrow
set of tightly prescribed circumstances – to travel, financial and communications data held
by other states and by the private sector. Conversely, the proliferation of cyber capabilities
will make it ever harder to protect the information and well-being of private individuals,
corporations and states.
Wider technological developments
3.28 Advances in medical technology, genetic engineering, biotechnology, materials science,
big data and robotics hold huge potential for our security and prosperity. For example, new
detection and screening technologies can better protect our borders, CNI and crowded
places. This technology will be more effective because it can be deployed routinely by the
private sector in support of national security.
3.29 But such technology will also become available to more state and non-state actors,
including terrorists, organised crime groups and cyber criminals. This could reduce Western
states’ technological advantage as controls on access to knowledge and materials become
harder to maintain.
3.30 The UK is reliant on access to space for our security, our economy, disaster
management and military capabilities. But near-Earth orbits are becoming increasingly
congested and competitive, with more countries and private actors pursuing space
programmes.