T HE S I T UAT I O N RE PORT I N B RI E F ▪▪ The Middle East and North Africa, including the Sahel region, remain the scene of numerous wars and armed conflicts. For example, the Syrian regime and its Russian and Iranian allies have strategically defeated the rebels, but have not yet secured victory. Despite massive losses, the ʻIslamic Stateʼ and other jihadist groups remain capable of launching major attacks. Jihadist groups and the individuals and small groups controlled or inspired by them pose the dominant terrorist threat in Europe. In Switzerland, the terrorist threat remains at a heightened level. ▪▪ The right-wing extremist scene is becoming more active. Several groups now have open websites, and one group in Vaud has even opened its own premises. At the same time, the scene continues to behave conspiratorially, and for the time being it remains unclear whether it is once again moving increasingly toward the direct use of violence. However, its potential for violence remains unchanged, as does that of the left-wing extremist scene. The latter has a network of international links, which is probably one of the reasons for the partially intensified use of violence by some groups that has been seen since 2017. Left-wing extremists combine their actions to form campaigns, especially against alleged repression and in particular against the expansion of the Bässlergut prison in Basel, and express their solidarity with the PKK in support of the Kurdish autonomously administered areas in northern Syria. The return from these areas of left-wing extremists trained in the use of weapons is a matter of concern for the European security authorities. ▪▪ With regard to the issue of proliferation, the appeal of weapons of mass destruction remains high, and technological advances are facilitating their acquisition. In the field of civil nuclear technology, China is the country currently driving dynamics. The centre of gravity with regard to responsibility for non-proliferation and for preventing the emergence of new nuclear weapon states is thus also shifting. In the proliferation target countries – Pakistan, Iran, Syria (possible replacement of chemical weapons programme) and North Korea – the situation has not changed. ▪▪ The return of power politics has also given renewed impetus to espionage – its use as a tool for information gathering is on the rise worldwide. Russia, with an agenda driven by superpower politics, and China, with an agenda driven primar- 12 S I T UAT I O N R E PORT 2 0 1 9 | F I S