J IH ADIST AND E T H NO -NAT IONALIST T E R R OR ISM What does the FIS see? Jihadist terrorism centre stage The terrorist threat in Switzerland has been at a heightened level since 2015. It stems mainly from jihadist actors, first and foremost supporters of the ʻIslamic Stateʼ. The threat from ethno-nationalist terrorism in Europe and Switzerland continues. Threat from supporters of jihadism Although the ʻIslamic Stateʼ’s caliphate has been militarily defeated, networks and cells of the ʻIslamic Stateʼ and its supporters and sympathisers, operating covertly, continue to shape the terrorist threat in Europe. However, the capability of the ʻIslamic Stateʼ itself to plan, direct and carry out attacks in Europe, such as the ones that took place in Paris in November 2015, is now limited. It is able to carry out attacks primarily in locations where it has a physical presence – be it in its core territory in Syria and Iraq or in one of the main areas of operation of one of its affiliates. Nonetheless, its supporters and sympathisers remain independently capable of undertaking terrorist activities in Europe or inspiring others to do so. The ʻIslamic Stateʼ’s propaganda remains a continuing source of inspiration in this regard. Its anti-Western and anti-democratic jihadist ideology is still popular. Switzerland has so far remained untouched by jihad-motivated acts of violence. However, the FIS has observed that the ideology of the ʻIslamic Stateʼ and al-Qaeda, which legitimises the use of violence, continues to resonate with radicalised or receptive individuals in Switzerland, especially adolescents and young adults. Fewer jihad-motivated attacks in Europe The frequency of terrorist attacks in Europe has decreased significantly. Since autumn 2017, seven acts of violence linked to jihadism have been identified, four of which the ʻIslamic Stateʼ claimed responsibility for. However, claims of responsibility by the ʻIslamic Stateʼ no longer have the impact they once had. It is also often difficult to assess whether an attack has actually been carried out for jihadist reasons. While the major attacks in Paris in November 2015 and Brussels in March 2016 were complex attacks ordered by the ʻIslamic Stateʼ, the tendency since then has been towards simpler attacks by inspired lone actors. However, we should not let this trend hide the fact that the security authorities of various European states have prevented numerous attacks and have uncovered planned attacks since autumn 2017. For example, a bomb attack involving the SIT UAT ION R E PORT 2 0 1 9 | FIS 37