S T R AT E GI C E N V I RON M E N T Iran track regime opponents even on European soil and are not afraid to carry out abductions or, in the case of Iran, attempted attacks. Countering proliferation attempts also calls for a high degree of alertness and requires a lot of effort. Europe: under the spell of its own crises and global power struggles In recent years, political tensions in the EU have increased significantly, mainly due to migration pressure and economic weaknesses. The process of Great Britain’s withdrawal and concern about the stability of the eurozone mean that the EU is very much preoccupied with its own affairs. The signs of polarisation between north and south, west and east, the centre and the periphery are clearly visible. In the face of increasing pressure from Russia, European security continues to depend primarily on the political will and military capabilities of the United States and NATO. Meanwhile, the proposals to establish a European army which were put forward in November 2018 by President Macron of France and Chancellor Merkel of Germany remain vague. Most importantly, they express doubts about the American willingness to defend Europe and have accordingly been welcomed by President Putin of Russia as a contribution to the construction of a multipolar world. However, since the attacks on eastern Ukraine and the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014, the USA has actually been strengthening its military capabilities in Europe. In November 2018, NATO used its large-scale exercise Trident Juncture to test amongst other things the operational readiness of its rapid reaction force. It demonstrated with this military exercise, the largest since 2002, and the involvement of 50,000 participants its defensive readiness and capabilities to Russia. Against the background of internal difficulties in European institutions, the adverse impact on Switzerland’s security of the growing power-political rivalry between the USA, Russia and China is becoming more and more evident – in particular through an increase in intelligence activities. The USA is seeing its military dominance come under increasing pressure from the expanding capabilities of the Russian and Chinese armed forces. Its main challenger in the global competition for controlling influence is China, with its large and rapidly growing economic potential. 20 S I T UAT I O N R E PORT 2 0 1 9 | F I S