Working Worldwide for the Security of the Netherlands The trends described above are the backdrop to the specific threats the Netherlands will be facing in the years ahead, or which we are already confronted with. The following threats are the most urgent. 3.1 Terrorist attacks 3. Threat analysis: the most urgent security threats The terrorist threat remains a source of permanent concern, nationally and internationally. As described in the National Counterterrorism Strategy for 2016-2020, religion-inspired terrorism will remain one of the main threats in the years ahead. This is borne out by attacks within and outside Europe. Since the military defeat of ISIS, there is no longer any territorial ‘caliphate’, but the terrorist threat and the violent and extremist jihadist ideology remain. The Middle East will continue to be plagued by terrorism for a long time to come. ISIS, al Qa’ida and other groups will continue find safe refuge in places where lawlessness reigns. Terrorists are moving to other conflict zones, while foreign terrorist fighters who return to their countries of origin – alone or with their families – can further disseminate terrorist ideologies. Besides the tangible terrorist threat this poses to the Netherlands, it can also have a radicalising effect on vulnerable young people within and outside Europe. This is because these groups build on existing fertile ground: perceptions among minorities, and especially young people, that they suffer from discrimination and socioeconomic deprivation, and the social-psychological problems that this entails. This can lead in turn to violent extremism, strengthening of criminal networks and transnational organised crime, a vicious circle that must be broken. There are also terrorist networks and individuals already active in Europe and other areas where the Netherlands has interests, some of which take direction from groups like ISIS and al Qa’ida. The Netherlands and Dutch nationals at home and abroad face a real likelihood of encountering terrorist violence. 3.2 Cyberthreats The digital threat is growing. The Netherlands is facing a wide range of digital attacks for the purpose of political and economic espionage and cybercrime. State actors are trying to find out more about Dutch government decision-making through digital political espionage. As stated in the National Cybersecurity Assessment, state actors are using digital means to influence democratic processes. Both state and non-state actors can benefit from, and are technically capable of committing, direct attacks on public services and vital government and corporate processes. That can lead to social disruption (sabotage), undermine social stability, and have consequences for the effectiveness and integrity of governance. | 19 |