DEFENCE WHITE PAPER ASEAN member states. There is also a greater regional interdependence due to proximity. Hence, the Government is giving emphasis to shared prosperity, shared security and shared identity at the regional level. iii. 8. Non-traditional security threats. These threats, primarily those that compromise human security and the environment, are escalating. These threats come in all forms such as extremism and terrorism, kidnapping for ransom, sea robbery and piracy as well as cyber threats. Examples include the Lahad Datu incursion in 2013, the repeated Abu Sayyaf Group armed abductions in the eastern waters of Sabah, the hijacking of MT Orkim Harmony off eastern Tanjung Sedili, Kota Tinggi in 2015 and cyber attacks in Singapore in 2018. Natural disasters are another form of non-traditional security threat in Southeast Asia. These non-traditional threats are unpredictable and may occur anywhere, anytime and to anyone. These threats are transboundary in nature and cannot be addressed single-handedly without the cooperation of other countries. Developments in recent years suggest that the three factors will become more complex and will cost the nation dearly if not handled appropriately. The Uncertain Big Power Relations 9. Big power relations are becoming more unpredictable. Despite their continuing cooperation and dialogue, the United States of America (US) and China have entered into a new phase where bilateral relations are marked more by rivalry than accommodation. The National Security Strategy and National Defense Strategy documents, published by the US in December 2017 and January 2018 respectively, describe China as a “strategic competitor” and a “revisionist power”. Both sides are embroiled in an increasingly bitter trade war, accompanied by technology decoupling, maritime tensions and other points of friction. China’s occupation and militarisation as well as related activities in the South China Sea, along with the US Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPs) and other powers’ similar actions, have turned the overlapping sovereign claims issue into a big-power game. Incursions by foreign government vessels off the coast of Sabah and Sarawak are clear challenges to Malaysia’s sovereign rights in the Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the South China Sea as provided by international law. Tensions have sparked in the South China Sea with the arrival of warships from outside the region. The growing rivalry and action-reaction between the powerful nations have raised the risk of regional polarisation. 10. At this point of time, when multilateralism appears to be in question and old alliances in doubt, protectionism and transactional politics are on the march. As unipolarity fades and chaos surrounding Brexit continue, the West’s influence will continue to decline. These developments have raised questions on global leadership, casting doubts on the international community’s capability to reach consensus and take collective actions on a range of transnational and regional issues. Meanwhile, the Russia-West standoff intensifies as the conflicts in Afghanistan, Syria, Yemen and elsewhere in West Asia and Africa regions continue. US-Iran tension is also escalating. The growing convergence of Russian, Iranian and Turkish interests is changing the Eurasian geopolitical landscape. Other geopolitical developments include the expansion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) in 2018 (India and Pakistan joining the regional group that consists of Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan), which is reshaping the security and economic connectivity between and across the Central and South Asian regions. Despite the ongoing post-Cold War geopolitical reconfigurations in Eurasia and West Asia, South Asia remains beset with conflicts. Tensions between India and Pakistan have worsened, especially after the two nuclear-armed neighbours exchanged cross-border fire in the disputed Kashmir in late 2019. 21