Systemic competition: a more contested international environment In a multipolar world, there will be a growing contest between states and groups of states to shape the international environment. Non-state actors – ranging from large tech companies to organised crime groups – will participate in this competition, increasing its complexity. Systemic competition will determine the shape of the future international order: the extent to which it is open, upholding the free exchange of ideas and trade, and facilitating cooperation on transnational challenges; or fragmented and broadly divided into geopolitical neighbourhoods and technological ecosystems, eroding cooperation between nations and enabling the spread of authoritarianism. Competition is likely to be ‘systemic’ in a number of ways: Competition between political systems. Ideological competition between different types of political system will increase. On current trends, the 15‑year decline in democracy and pluralism will continue to 2030, accelerated by COVID-19. Tensions between democratic and authoritarian states are highly likely to become more pronounced, as authoritarian states seek to export their domestic models, undermine open societies and economies, and shape global governance in line with their values. Competition to shape the international order. Competition will increase the strains on the existing multilateral architecture, weakening established rules and norms that govern international conduct. In some areas, such as emerging technology or space, there will be a growing contest – in which non-state actors will play an important role – to shape new rules, norms and standards, and to control access to shared resources such as space. Those parts of the international architecture where multilateral cooperation adds value, such as the International Financial Institutions, are more likely to thrive. Conversely, where multilateral approaches are blocked, nations will likely caucus in smaller, regional or like‑minded groups. Competition across multiple spheres. Competition will continue within the conventional military domains of land, sea and air, and will grow in other spheres, including technology, cyberspace and space, further shaping the wider geopolitical environment. Systemic competition will further test the line between peace and war, as malign actors use a wider range of tools – such as economic statecraft, cyber-attacks, disinformation and proxies – to achieve their objectives without open confrontation or conflict. The UK is likely to remain a priority target for such threats. Our ability to deter aggression will be challenged by new techniques and technologies. 28 Integrated Review