level we observe the destabilization of the security situation in the Black Sea Extended Region
(BSER) on the background of actions undertaken by the Russian Federation to strengthen its
areas of influence, of the phenomenon of migration, and of instability in the Western Balkans.
The development of military potential in the vicinity of the eastern border of our
country, materialized in the setting up and deployment of modern capabilities in the proximity
of Romania, concurrently with the unfolding of processes of reorganization, modernization, and
procurement of high-technology weapons systems, and the numerically increase of short-notice
or no-notice large-scale military exercises, represent the most important factor of military
risk against national security.
Instability in the eastern proximity, present in the destabilizing actions in Ukraine and
the frozen conflicts in BSER, along with autonomist-separatist trends - which include
paramilitary elements – in regions with a significant presence of minority groups, can generate
open conflicts in the vicinity of Romania’s borders.
Interethnic tensions and economic imbalances in the Western Balkans countries or east
of Romania may lead to the reactivation of low-intensity local conflicts, which may turn into
risks against the national security of our country.
Inefficient measures to control the flow of migration from MENA and of measures to
effectively integrate refugees in European society may affect the EU security architecture as a
whole, and generate risks against all EU member countries, including Romania.
Terrorism does not represent a direct threat at this time, but the geographic proximity to
areas where terrorism is rampant and the participation of our country in actions to
stabilize/rebuild areas of conflict may determine the promoters of terrorism to include Romania
on their list of targets.
Hybrid warfare, as a threat from a state or non-state enemy, that is using conventional
and nonconventional methods and means in a vector-oriented and uniform manner, may
represent a major risk against the security of Romania.
Intelligence operations, as an effective way to destabilize target states, represent a
special risk factor through the ability to create breaches in society, to weaken confidence in
national governments, and to affect the cohesion of NATO and the EU.
Proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, nuclear technologies and materials,
unconventional weapons, and lethal means, continue to represent a significant threat. This
threat is enhanced by the capacity of current vectors to carry to their targets, both conventional
payloads, and chemical, biological, radiological or nuclear explosive devices. Similarly, the
proliferation of high-precision weapons systems continue to remain a concern of state and nonstate actors, and the process is facilitated by access to technology.
Cyber attacks are a complex category of threats through the increasing dynamic, global
character, difficulty in identifying the sources of attacks and establishing effective
countermeasures. The critical civilian infrastructure objectives, as well as defense
communications systems and information technology equipment may be probable targets for
such attacks.
International organized crime represents a threat with military significance because, in a
specific context, it can interfere with military operations through its action, consequences, and
connections with others types of unconventional risks and threats. At the same time, Romania
can be an area of transit for individuals involved in criminal activities such as illegal migration
or arms trafficking and dual-use materials smuggling, but also as a target state for an opponent
whose objectives may include military facilities on the national territory.
Despite the fact that a military aggression in Europe is unlikely, the capacity to
trigger such an aggression, increased by the presence of Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD)
capabilities in the Black Sea, represent the main threat against the security of Romania and
other states in the region.
Under these circumstances of existing of both conventional and unconventional threats,
it is necessary to strengthen national operational capabilities, and to develop existing strategic
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