2.2. Ecological drivers: sustainability as the basis for prosperity and security Together with climate change, environmental de­gradation is a critical global challenge. Both will be at the centre of social and political attention in the years ahead. The enormous economic and social growth the world has experienced since the middle of the 20th century has come at an increasingly high environmental cost. Natural resources are being overexploited and the consumption of fossil fuels is unsustainable. Environmental impacts threaten to undermine development progress. For several years now, the World Economic Forum Global Risks Report has been placing environmental risks at the top of global challenges. Policymakers have in fact taken measures to reduce the environmental footprint. In certain areas, there is some evidence of a trend reversal: the ozone layer has begun to show signs of recovery since ozone-­ depleting chemicals were banned. The ozone layer is healing itself. Overall, however, the environmental trend is negative. Achieving the economic and social goals of the 2030 Agenda will require greater progress in the Agenda’s environmental dimension. 2.2.1. Critical thresholds of planetary boundaries have been reached according to UN environmental reports, global air pollution is worsening despite progress in the industrialised countries. Polluted air kills up to 7 million people each year. Soil quality is also deteriorating. Almost one third of the world’s land mass is affected by soil degradation. Biodiversity is declining dramatically. Biodiversity loss reduces the ability of ecosystems to perform vital functions. Western and central Europe have witnessed a 60% decline in species diversity in recent decades. Global populations of vertebrates have declined by 60% on average since 1970. Depending on the habitat, between 25% and 42% of invertebrate species are now threatened with extinction. The acidification of the world’s oceans and marine plastic waste are another environmental disaster. Freshwater quality is also deteriorating. In addition to contamination by bacteria, chemicals, pesticides and heavy metals, the dissemination of antibiotic resistance via waterways is a major concern. Antibiotic resistance is becoming a global threat to health and food security. Furthermore, rising water consumption causes water shortages: According to the UN, by 2040 over 30 countries – almost half of them in the Middle East – will face “extreme water stress”. This occurs when over 80% of available water resources are used up. Scientific research on the various planetary boundaries to absorb waste and pollution has not advanced equally far for all these boundaries. But there is little disagreement among experts that critical thresholds have been reached or will soon be reached in many environmental areas: Water stress: forecast for 2040 low (<10%) low to medium (10–20%) medium to high (20–40%) high (40–80%) extremely high (>80%) 7 The world in 2028 – what do we have to prepare for? Source: World Resources Institute