Experts are saying that a new bipolar world order – divided this time into US and Chinese spheres of influence – is a real possibility. But it is no more likely than other scenarios. Although confrontations over regional conflicts are more frequent and often more intense in multilateral forums like the UN, positive results are still being achieved on many issues. With the 2030 Agenda, the Paris Agreement and the global compact for migration, the UN has been able to develop solutions to global challenges. A reformed multilateralism certainly has a future and Switzerland can help to shape it. 2.1.3. 2030 Agenda: progress towards development and global challenges The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development provides a global framework for economically, socially and environmentally sustainable development. Adopted in 2015, the Agenda sets common goals for all states and marks a break with the old north-south paradigm. It also constitutes a basis for forward-looking development cooperation. The agenda is also a benchmark for International Geneva, as many of the organisations based there are contributing to its implementation. The world has made significant development progress. The proportion of children dying before reaching their fifth birthday fell from 36% at the turn of the 20th century to 4% in 2015. The proportion of adults with basic literacy skills rose from 21% to 85% over the same period. Over 2.5 billion people gained better access to clean drinking water between 1990 and 2015. Per capita income is a particularly telling indicator of progress: the proportion of people living in extreme poverty fell from 41% in 1981 to 10% in 2015. Despite this progress, enormous global challenges remain. Among these are numerous crises and conflicts, often escalating to extreme levels of violence. Today’s conflicts also last longer than they did some 20 years ago. A multiplicity of causes and actors make it more difficult to find lasting solutions. Most conflicts are still intra-state conflicts but they are increasingly becoming proxy wars orchestrated by regional and major powers. Although wars between the world’s major powers are unlikely, there is a growing risk of unintentional escalation triggered by military provocations. Fragile states are still a major challenge. According to the OECD, 24% of the world’s population now lives in a fragile state, and by 2030 this figure could rise to 28%, to 2.3 billion people. The fight against poverty has been comparatively unsuccessful in fragile states: by 2030, over 80% of people living in extreme poverty are likely to be in such countries. Demographic trends are important indicators of future development. Many fragile states are experiencing high population growth. According to UN forecasts, the world’s population is expected to increase by 2.2 billion between 2017 and 2050. Over half of this increase will take place in Africa, whose share of the world population is expected to rise from 17% to 26%. Europe is the only continent where the population will decline in absolute terms. Europe’s share of the world’s population will fall from 10% to under 8% by 2050. Asia already accounts for over 60% of the world’s population, and its share will continue to increase. Fragile states – focus on Africa Fragile contexts Extremely fragile contexts 5 The world in 2028 – what do we have to prepare for? Source: OECD, States of Fragility Report 2018