are particularly destructive for Western countries producing the same impact as those resulting from the war fought with conventional weapons. 33. Demographic changes. Demographic evolution will produce a variety of effects on our society regarding the economy, the social environment and security. With regard to international security and defence issues, widespread poverty, high unemployment rates and a relatively low level of education in many countries produce social tension and migratory pressure, which may cause difficulties even in the countries objective of such exoduses. In Europe reduced birth rates and ageing populations could lead to tensions between generations as well as having an impact on the availability of young, qualified personnel for building security and defence structures. 34. Urbanization. It is estimated that in 2040, 65% of the world population will live in large built up areas and that 95 % of the increase in urban population will occur in the mega-cities of the developing countries. This process will have a significant impact on the dynamics of security management in those states. Because of the inability to ensure the basic needs of the population in these areas, the possibility of conflicts will be increased. It will also be more difficult for military or police distinguish between combatants and armless citizens. 35. Scarcity of natural resources. Nations in the developing world need ever increasing levels of energy and raw materials to sustain their growth. Competition for these resources could produce a higher level of international tension leading to possible conflicts. However, the increasing scarcity of vital resources such as water and food due to population growth, climate change and an irrational use of territories is a much more serious problem. It is the cause of the migration phenomena and could pave the way to strong competition, even armed, for the possession of such resources. 36. Climate change. Changes in the global climate have a growing impact on our increasingly urbanized societies dependent on territories where human intervention has profoundly altered the existing natural balance. In this situation, the results of natural phenomena such as disasters will have devastating effects. In addition, disasters - 24 -