realism in setting priorities and in choosing intervention tools is required. Choices reflecting a “non- realistic” approach to the problems of international security would result in a significant waste of resources with the consequence of less protecting national interests. 26. Therefore, this White Paper had to evolve from a preliminary identification of the most significant factors characterizing the current international environment with major trends influencing its evolution. This effort was necessary not only to propose a predictive and deterministic model of future threats or risks to national security, but rather to reduce the level of unpredictability and uncertainty of the analysis, identifying a more precise reference environment within which different choices can be made. 27. The guidelines to this document stated that the current period is distinguished by two and concomitant geopolitical phenomena: a progressive globalization of phenomena and problems, which tends to turn the world into a highly interconnected and interdependent “global village” at least for that part of the world with a high level of interdependence, and a parallel process of fragmentation, which causes structural weakening and destabilisation especially in weaker or newly constituted states. 28. The current international situation is characterized by frequently widespread instability overshadowed by conflicts not always restrained, which are triggered by political, social, economic, environmental or religious factors. This is more likely in areas suffering from socio-economic problems or areas deprived of traditional references, leadership and stability due to the post-Cold War process of global transformation. Several factors influence the future international security scenario and to encourage new situations of instability in addition to those ones still unresolved from the last century. Some of the most relevant are the following. 29. Variation of the global balance of power. The gradual formation of a new world equilibrium on a poly-centric basis, or according to some, on an a-centric and regional basis, resulting from the affirmation of new emerging powers, could lead, even in the medium term, to new political, economic or military challenges. Hence the possible - 22 -