The situation report in brief The challenges facing the security agencies have been growing in complexity for years. The FIS's situation radar tool is one of the instruments that offer guidance for Switzerland's security policy and provides Switzerland's inhabitants with an outline of the key issues from an intelligence viewpoint. ▪▪ Europe remains under exceptional strain due to internal and external crises. Recently, questions have also been raised about the capability of NATO to act effectively as the foundation of the security order in Europe. The USA has intensified the debate about burden sharing. Alliance member Turkey has ambitions to shape its strategic environment between the EU/NATO, Russia and the Middle East independently of Western ideas of order. Fundamental uncertainty and thus reduced predictability will shape Switzerland's strategic environment for a long time to come. ▪▪ Russia is currently more politically stable, economically robust and militarily capable of action than it has ever been since the fall of the Soviet Union, even though long-term challenges remain. The Russian leadership controls both state and society. Russia, a revanchist power, is seeking to restore the historically and ideologically deeply-rooted Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Europe. Ukraine will continue to be the focus of its ambitions. The steady deterioration of the relationship between Russia and the transatlantic West has in all likelihood not yet reached its lowest point and will also have repercussions for Switzerland. ▪▪ The Middle East and North Africa, including the Sahel region, are the scene of numerous armed conflicts. For years, the impact of these conflicts has also been felt in Europe, in the form of migration movements and jihadist terrorism. While ‘Islamic State’ has lost its state-like structure, as well as the bulk of its territories and its openly operating mili­ tary units, the terrorist threat in Europe from the jihadist movement will continue to be shaped by ‘Islamic State’ and individuals and small groups controlled or inspired by it. The threat posed by al-Qaeda persists. ‘Islamic State’ and former jihadist fighters continue to use migration flows to Europa and Switzerland for their purposes. The terrorist threat in Switzerland remains at a heightened level. ▪▪ Migration numbers have fallen since the peak levels of refugees and migrants which presented a major challenge for Europe in 2015, but migration potential and the pressure on Europe remain high. At the moment, this issue is not motivating right-wing or left-wing extremists in Switzerland to engage in any significant action. While rightwing extremists are keeping a lower profile than they have done for decades, the threat from left-wing extremists has become more acute over the last twelve months. A cam- SIT UAT ION R E PORT 2 0 1 8 | FIS 7