FOCUS: RUSSIA bilised. Since its low in 2015, however, the oil price has now risen again to over 60 dollars per barrel. Increasing pressure on Eastern Europe In terms of security policy, one of Putin's most important projects is the re-establishment of a Russian sphere of influence in Eastern Europe, a sphere of influence in the sense of a cordon sanitaire, a buffer zone on Russia's western flank. From Russia's point of view, this sphere of influence covers large areas between the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea. Putin considers it his personal historic mission to establish this zone of influence in order to protect Russia from the expansion of the NATO transatlantic alliance under the leadership of the United States. He sees himself in the tradition of Russian tsars of the 17th and 18th centuries, of Peter the Great and Catherine the Great, under whose leadership the territories which today form the Baltic states, Belarus and Ukraine were conquered. The geostrategic struggle for the area between the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea is deeply rooted in Russian and European history and will determine the relationship between Russia and the transatlantic West well into the 2020s. The Russian armed forces will also play a central role here. Under Putin, these have gradually been developed into an instrument that can be deployed in concrete situations. The ongoing operations in Ukraine and Syria demonstrate that there is the political will and sufficient military potential to deploy the armed forces. Russia has modern weapon systems and can thus demonstrate capabilities on a par with those of Western armed forces. It has success- fully pushed ahead with the consolidation process in recent years. Under the current armaments program running from 2011 to 2020, it will continue to implement its aims of modernizing its assets according to plan. This is likely to continue at a similar pace in the overlapping follow-on programme from 2018 to 2027. The increased injection of contract staff into the armed forces has led to a significant rise in the levels of training, preparedness and deployability. Several major exercises have demonstrated impressive mobilisation and command and control skills. The nuclear weapon systems of the so-called ‘strategic triad’ continue to be accorded high priority, and Russia invests heavily in their maintenance and renewal. The employment of nuclear weapons is also regularly practised, including in basically conventional scenarios. The ideological nature of the Russian leadership and the historical development of this region provide an indication of the extent of Russia's ambitions in Eastern Europe. Ukraine, where a war with periodic fragile ceasefires has been ongoing since 2014, will remain in the spotlight. Long-term control of Ukraine is key to the establishment of a Russian zone of influence. As events in connection with Ukraine since 2014 demonstrate, Russia is not afraid of using military force. To the north, Belarus has already been very much reintegrated into Russia's sphere of control in recent years. Its economy is largely dependent on the Russian economy. Since the Ukrainian crisis, President Alexander Lukashenko has been trying to prevent a ‘Ukraine’ scenario, i.e. war on Belarus soil, and therefore favours developing Belarus SIT UAT ION R E PORT 2 0 1 8 | FIS 27