Strategic environment Internal and external crisis situations Switzerland's strategic environment is still marked by unusually high levels of strain on Europe due to internal and external crisis situations. In the last few years, these crisis situations have been regularly described by the FIS in its situation reports. The Brexit decision has shaken the EU vision to its core and will continue to absorb the EU's energies for years to come. Questions have also repeatedly been raised about the stability of the eurozone and thus also the common currency, and recently, with increasing frequency, about the capability of NATO to act effectively as the foundation of the security order in Europe. At the same time, the periphery of the EU and NATO is under the greatest external pressure it has faced for a generation: in the east from a strengthened and revanchist Russia and in the south from the Middle East and North Africa, where the state order is threatening to disintegrate in some places – with impacts on Europe in the form of migration movements and an increased terror threat, both of which are unsettling populations and placing an extraordinary strain on national and European institutions. The European order is showing clear cracks Following the surprising votes for Brexit in the UK and for Donald Trump in the USA, elections in many places in Europe in 2017 confirmed the loss of confidence in the parties of the centre, which have traditionally supported the state and formed the government. In France, the Front National has never been so close to election victory. In Germany, the parties of the grand coalition accounted for not much more than half the seats in the Bundestag. Political forces which are turning their backs on progressive integration as a fundamental idea of the European order now bear governmental responsibility not only in the United Kingdom but also in Greece, Hungary, Poland, the Czech Republic and Austria. These popular votes highlight the extent to which Western political orders have lost the predictability and stability which had characterised them for so long. Long-held political certainties are being questioned and challenged and are beginning to change or are even unravelling. We are only just beginning to get an idea of what will ultimately replace the old certainties. In the wake of a rise in nationalist tendencies, elements of the future might include a return to more national solutions and a narrower definition of European solidarity. As a consequence, Switzerland has entered a prolonged period of fundamental uncertainty and thus reduced predictability in our strategic environment. The picture painted by election and poll decisions is one which shows the major European institutions in crisis. Although the EU has endured through the challenges of recent years, initiated the search for solutions and the debate about the further evolution of the Union with various proposals, its capability to act effectively is hampered by numerous internal and external crisis situations. Following SIT UAT ION R E PORT 2 0 1 8 | FIS 13