Chapter 3 – The National Security Context 15 Chapter 3 – The National Security Context The changing national security context and future implications 3.1 The world is changing rapidly and fundamentally. We are seeing long-term shifts in the balance of global economic and military power, increasing competition between states, and the emergence of more powerful non-state actors. We are increasingly likely to have to deal with unexpected developments. 3.2 Globalisation and technological advances bring unparalleled opportunities to the UK and to people around the world. But the National Security Risk Assessment 2015 concludes that the threats faced by the UK, including our Overseas Territories and our overseas interests, have increased in scale, diversity and complexity since 2010. A summary of the assessment is at Annex A. 3.3 Four particular challenges are likely to drive UK security priorities for the coming decade. They have both immediate and longer-term implications: i. The increasing threat posed by terrorism, extremism and instability. ii. The resurgence of state-based threats; and intensifying wider state competition. iii. The impact of technology, especially cyber threats; and wider technological developments. iv. The erosion of the rules-based international order, making it harder to build consensus and tackle global threats. 3.4 In this dynamic and uncertain context, we will have to work to ensure our security and to exploit opportunities. Domestic and global security challenges Terrorism and extremism 3.5 The threat from Islamist terrorist groups to the UK, including to British nationals and interests overseas, has increased. Since 2010, over 60 British nationals have been killed as victims of terrorism overseas, including in the recent attacks in Sousse and Paris. The terrorist threat is fed, supported and sanctioned by extremist ideologies.