J IH ADIST AND E T H NO -NAT IONALIST T E R R OR ISM The threat posed by core al-Qaeda persists, although it lacks resources. It still intends to carry out attacks on Western targets. Some of its regional affiliates, for example al-Shabaab in Somalia and al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb, have stronger operational capabilities and will be able to maintain their influence in their respective main areas of operation. Assessment-changing elements are worth mentioning regarding two groups within the al-Qaeda movement. Hurras al-Din (Guardians of the Religion) presents a growing threat. This jihadist group, based in Idlib province in Syria, is a spin-off of the al-Qaeda-linked Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant). While the HTS has pursued an increasingly local, i.e. ʻSyrianʼ, agenda in the last few years, Hurras al-Din represents al-Qaeda’s global jihadist agenda. It therefore also aims to attack Western interests. Currently, however, it lacks the necessary resources. The future threat emanating from HTS and Hurras al-Din will depend significantly on the developments of the military situation on the ground. The threat from al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) has diminished. It has suffered numerous losses over the last one and a half years. Targeted air attacks and various ground operations have severely reduced its capacity and capabilities. AQAP is still keen to attack Western targets, but no longer really has the necessary capabilities and access to do so. In particular, it no longer has the same degree of bomb-making expertise it had at the time of its spectacular attempted attacks against Western targets in 2009 and 2010. This has led to a reduction in the threat to civil aviation from AQAP. FDFA travel advice Available online at: www.eda.admin.ch/reisehinweise www.dfae.admin.ch/voyages www.dfae.admin.ch/viaggi Smartphone app for Android and iPhone: itineris www.twitter.com/travel_edadfae www.itineris.eda.admin.ch SIT UAT ION R E PORT 2 0 1 9 | FIS 39