TRENDS AND OUTLOOK FOR CYBER SECURITY IN THE CZECH REPUBLIC FOR 2021 AND 2022 1. 2. 3. RANSOMWARE: The use of extortion malware by which attackers encrypt the data of the attacked institutions with consequent demands for ransom will almost certainly (90% – 100% probability) remain one of the most significant cyber threats in the next two years. At the same time, the trend for increasing sophistication of campaigns and targeting specific victims is highly likely (75% – 85% probability) to continue. Considering the persisting pressure on healthcare facilities in 2021 and 2022, it is almost certain (90% – 100% probability) that they will remain the targets of ransomware. Large-scale undertakings, public sector insti­ tutions, and educational establishments are also highly likely (75% – 85% probability) to become targets. PHISHING, SPEAR-PHISHING, AND SCAM E-MAILS: The Czech Republic will continue to face the most severe threats from 2020 in the coming years, mainly because of the per­ sisting possibility of exploitation of the topic of the pandemic and the development of social engineering methods, such as more sophisti­ cated spear-phishing with the use of deepfakes. It is also likely (55% –70% probability) that the spread of deepfakes will be used for vishing (a blend of voice and phishing) more often, focusing on users as well as public institutions and, above all, financial institutions. LACK OF CYBER SECURITY EXPERTS: The long-term shortage of experts is a factor affect­ ing a number of cyber security areas and trends. We can therefore assume that the outsourc­ ing of many services associated with IT infra­ structure and its securing (Security as a Service, among others) is highly likely (75% – 85% prob­ ability) to grow over the coming years. 4. 5. CLOUD: The growing popularity of cloud envi­ ronments is highly likely (75% – 85% probability) to cause a further increase in number of cyber­ attacks targeted at this infrastructure. Clouds will face attacks more and more frequently since both State actors and cybercrime groups will try to gain access to sensitive data or trade secrets. Insufficiencies in security (such as in­ appropriate configuration) are likely (55% – 70% probability) to remain the most exploited vec­ tor of attacks on cloud services. There is a realis­ tic possibility (25% – 50% probability) that Czech organisations or companies will be among the affected clients of those services. CYBERATTACKS AGAINST STRATEGIC STATE INSTITUTIONS: Central government authorities of the Czech Republic are highly likely (75% – 85% probability) to face serious cyberattacks from sophisticated actors in 2021 and 2022. The public sector, including its strategic institutions (the central government authorities in particular), is a frequent target of both cyber criminals and State actors because of its visibility and access to sensitive information. Foreign cases (such as the SolarWinds case) demonstrate that attackers are using more and more sophisticated methods to enter their victim’s system and the attacks are consequently more difficult to detect. Based on the above-mentioned facts, its own data, and information from its partners, the NÚKIB estimates that the trend of serious cyberattacks against strategic government authorities will materialise in the Czech Republic in the next two years, and one or more of them are highly likely (75% – 85% probability) to face a serious cyberattack from sophisticated actors. Trends and Outlook for Cyber security in the Czech Republic for 2021 and 2022 34